Russian Notes: Russia and World War IV

Iraq has not been America's second Vietnam: It has been America's Iraq. The Americans have not lost the war there to al Qaeda or to an Islamic Jihad. The Iraqi people reject the belligerents"Al Qaeda and the U.S."equally. Do not, however, be in too much of a hurry to admire the courage and wisdom of the heroic people of Iraq. For the most part, its glorious Shiite and Sunni sons are busily slaughtering each other with unbelievable cruelty and efficiency.

It is not easy to decide what their real motivation is: whether a theological dispute about the destiny of the Twelfth Imam, fond memories of the unity of their communities under Saddam Hussein, or a fight to control future oil revenues. With every new mass murder, however, the spiral of violence is given another twist, which makes fresh bloodshed inevitable.

They seemed almost to have forgotten about the Americans during the summer. American losses were very low at that time, but increased sharply in October to over 100 deaths when America tried to interpose its troops as a kind of shield between rival militias in Baghdad.

The absurdity of the present mission of American troops in Iraq is now evident. They are dying in an attempt to prevent two groups of fanatics, which equally hate America, from killing each other.

Shortly after the Nov. 7 mid-term elections this absurdity will be terminated irrespective of which party is the more successful. The likelihood is that the Americans will reduce their military contingent and redeploy it to a more or less loyal and even friendly Kurdistan, leaving the Sunnis and Shiites to slug it out.

Almost inevitably, the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites will spread in one way or another, drawing in most of the countries of the region.

These highly probable developments in the coming months will also have consequences for Russia.

The Russian political elite (and, indeed, its counterpart in Europe) will view the collapse of America's attempt to advance democracy in the Middle East with profound gloating satisfaction. There will be a very considerable financial windfall for Kremlin rulers due to Russia's new found status as an "energy superpower." This will come from the inevitable surge in oil prices when such oil-producing countries as Iran and Saudi Arabia are drawn into the conflict on different sides.

For these psychological and financial pleasures of its "elite" our country is likely to pay a high geopolitical price. Let us not forget that other war in Afghanistan where there seems to be a great coming together of all the drug-producing forces of society, from the Taliban to the generals of the former Northern Alliance to the close relatives of President Karzai, on a shared platform of hostility towards NATO.

NATO, on which we rain curses daily and which we do our best with war cries to drive from its bases in Central Asia, is far from creeping up on Russia through Georgia and Ukraine. Right now, with its last, failing strength, it is protecting the southern borders of Russia's Commonwealth from the advance of Islamic radicals.

In the context of Iraq's failure, evident Pakistan capitulation to and collusion with the Taliban and growing Western casualties, liberal Western public opinion, both in Europe and in North America, will demand the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, and the Russian political elite will experience its last profound moment of satisfaction. Having left Afghanistan, NATO as a military and political institution will cease to exist.

The Islamic radicals, however, inspired by another historic victory, will move to unite with their brothers in the faith in Kyrgyzia, Tadjikistan, and Dagestan. They will foster a rebellion in the Fergana Valley and other hotspots where the ground has already been prepa