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Ricochet

What if Baghdad Falls to ISIS?

Alleged Islamic State (IS) militants stand next to an IS flag atop a hill in the Syrian town of Ain al-Arab, on October 6, 2014. (ARIS MESSINIS/AFP/Getty Images)
Caption
Alleged Islamic State (IS) militants stand next to an IS flag atop a hill in the Syrian town of Ain al-Arab, on October 6, 2014. (ARIS MESSINIS/AFP/Getty Images)

There are now reliable reports that ISIS forces are a mile or so from the Iraqi capital. While CNN, NPR, ABC, and the rest have been celebrating our president as the second coming of Douglas MacArthur — with his “gutsy” air strikes and his diplomatic skill in pulling together a coalition to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State — the Islamic State has been quietly gaining ground over the past several days, and closing the noose around Baghdad.

Although the U.S. and U.K. are desperately bombing away to keep ISIS at bay, it’s not clear who or what can stop them from taking the capital. “They said it could never happen, and now it almost has,” according to Canon Andrew White of the Foundation for Relief and Reconciliation in the Middle East. His people face mass slaughter if the radical Islamists take over, as do thousands of others.

So what’s the larger impact if and when Baghdad falls? Some quick thoughts.

First, strategically and geopolitically for the U.S., it’s a catastrophe of the first order. Like the fall of Saigon in 1975, it will be an overwhelming setback for U.S. prestige, not to mention honor, and our hopes of ever being a strategic presence in the Middle East and South Asia again.

Second, it will be a humanitarian catastrophe, starting with the massacre of anyone who has ever cooperated with the Americans or the previous governments. Before the fall of Saigon, we were at least able to evacuate 50,000 personnel and refugees in the greatest airlift in history. It’s very likely that there will be no time for any comparable operation, even if the Obama administration had the will do it. Expect an ISIS bloodbath that will make their previous massacres look like playground kickball.

Third, it will be an irrevocable blow to this president’s credibility. The media and the administration will try to shift the blame to Bush of course, e.g., “if he hadn’t lied about WMD’s and invaded in the first place, none of this would be happening.” Unfortunately for them, no one will believe it now.

If this had happened in the first year or so of the administration, maybe. Not now; five years is more than a “decent interval.” It was Obama and Biden, after all, not Bush, who declared victory in Iraq and listed it as a major foreign policy accomplishment; it was Obama, not Bush who pulled out American troops and had half a decade to bring the Iraqi army up to adequate standards — which it clearly hasn’t met and isn’t going to meet anywhere near in time to save Baghdad.

Furthermore, the entire air war against ISIS, and Obama’s phony coalition, will be revealed to be a sham at best, and at worst a campaign to deliberately deceive Americans as to what is actually happening on the ground.

It’s no good taking pleasure in seeing Obama and his clueless foreign policy team finally exposed for the hapless frauds they are. The fall of Baghdad will be a blow to our country’s credibility that, like the fall of Vietnam, will take years to recover from.

Fourth, it would spell the effective end of Iraq. Like Syria, it would exist simply as a geographical expression. Meanwhile, ISIS will consolidate its gains in the north and around Kobani; press ahead with their genocidal campaign against the Kurds; and use control of Baghdad to extend its war on other parts of Iraqi society. That will also prompt the Shia majority in the south to look to Iran for protection; as I wrote in the Washington Examiner this morning, the entire Obama foreign policy has given a tremendous boost to Iran’s expansion of power and influence. The fall of Baghdad will put the capstone on it.

Fifth, it will be a major recruiting tool for ISIS. They will have seized one of the great capitals of Islamic civilization while the Great Satan, America, ran away and did nothing. Expect more young men to flock to enlist in its blood-stained ranks, especially in Western countries.

After all, if a small band of fanatics can reestablish the Caliphate in one ancient Islamic capital through bold ruthless action, why not another? Istanbul perhaps. Mecca and Medina certainly. Why not Cordoba in Spain or Palermo in Sicily?

Or Dearborn in Michigan?

If that sounds wildly improbable, you haven’t been paying attention these past five years.

We are living in an extended episode of the Twilight Zone—and our president has hidden the remote.

Just be glad you’re not in Baghdad right now.