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Weekly Standard Online

The State of the Race, Post-Super Tuesday

Fifteen states have now voted in the Republican presidential race, or 30 percent of the total. Those states have accounted for 28 percent of the delegates that will ultimately be awarded nationwide. (They will eventually account for 29 percent, once all of their delegates have been allocated.) So, more than two-thirds of the states have yet to vote, and more than 70 percent of the delegates have yet to be won.

Of the 562 delegates that have been allocated (as of 8:00 AM EST on March 3) from Super Tuesday alone (94 percent of the eventual total of 595), Donald Trump has won 237 (42 percent), Ted Cruz 209 (37 percent), Marco Rubio 94 (17 percent), John Kasich 19 (3 percent), and Ben Carson 3 (1 percent).

With 96 percent of the vote in from Minnesota, 99 percent from Arkansas and Massachusetts, and 100 percent elsewhere, Trump has won 34.4 percent of the Super Tuesday vote, Cruz 29.2 percent, Rubio 21.9 percent, Kasich 6.4 percent, Carson 5.8 percent, and others 2.3 percent. Trump won seven states on Super Tuesday, Cruz three, and Rubio one. Trump finished in the top two in ten states, Cruz in seven, Rubio in three, and Kasich in two.

Including all 15 states that have voted to date, here are the current standings among the four GOP candidates who remain in the race (with Carson having bowed out after Super Tuesday):

Delegates won to date:

Trump, 319 (26 percent of the total needed for the nomination)

Cruz, 226 (18 percent of the total needed)

Rubio, 110 (9 percent)

Kasich, 25 (2 percent)

Percentage of the delegates won to date:

Trump, 46 percent

Cruz, 33 percent

Rubio, 16 percent

Kasich, 4 percent

Percentage of the vote won to date:

Trump, 34.2 percent

Cruz, 28.1 percent

Rubio, 21.7 percent

Kasich, 6.6 percent

States won to date:

Trump, 10

Cruz, 4

Rubio, 1

Kasich, 0

Number of times placing in the top two (winner or runner-up) to date:

Trump, 14

Cruz, 8

Rubio, 5

Kasich, 3

The notion that Trump is running away with the race, with Cruz and Rubio battling for second at a distance, is belied by two facts: One, Trump has gotten less than 35 percent of the vote to date (and less than 35 percent of the vote in a majority of the states to date); two, Trump is closer to Cruz in delegate tally, percentage of the delegates won, and percentage of the vote, than Cruz is to Rubio.

Next up (after tonight's debate): Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine.