What’s Happening in Minsk? A Conversation with Belarusian Democratic Leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Since the fraudulent Belarusian presidential election in August 2020, Belarusian democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has been the face of a free Belarus. Strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s regime imprisoned Tsikhanouskaya’s husband for voicing his own presidential aspirations and subsequently exiled her to Lithuania for spearheading large opposition rallies.

But Tsikhanouskaya remains a tireless advocate for freedom in Belarus and a forceful opponent of Russia’s war on Ukraine. She has also categorically rejected any deployment of Russian nuclear weapons onto Belarusian territory. “Without a free and democratic and independent Belarus, there will be no security in Europe. There will be a constant threat,” she told Agence France-Presse earlier this year.

In January, Lukashenko held yet another sham election that was neither free nor fair. Join Senior Fellow Peter Rough as he sits down with Tsikhanouskaya for a conversation on the state of affairs in Belarus and the geopolitics of Central and Eastern Europe.

Event Transcript

This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.

Peter Rough:

Good afternoon and welcome to Hudson Institute. My name is Peter Rough. I’m a senior fellow here and director of our center on Europe and Eurasia. And it’s my high privilege and distinct honor to welcome to the stage, to Hudson Institute, the national leader of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Since 2022, when she founded it, head of the United Transitional Cabinet based out of Vilnius, Lithuania. Ma’am, it’s a great pleasure to have you here. Thank you so much for being here.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Thank you for inviting me.

Peter Rough:

So you were based in Vilnius ever since leaving Belarus in exile after the widely considered fraudulent elections of 2020, which most observers believe you won. So since you’re normally in Vilnius, you’re now here live in the flesh in Washington. What brings you here? What’s on your mind? What accounts for your trip to the United States?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Since our uprising back in 2020 took place, we wish to win this fight against dictatorship, we need light, we need attention from international administrations, institutions, so on and so forth. So this time, it’s my first visit after presidential elections. And it’s very important for me to rediscover Belarus for this new administration. But again, just I remember how in 2020 during our uprising, President Trump was fulfilling his duties still and he was actually the person, the president, who shaped the policy regarding Belarus five years ago. He was the person who imposed sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime. He didn’t recognize elections in Belarus, so he just knew about our country. But now it’s a new geopolitical context. Now the Ukrainian aspect is added. So, for us, it’s important now to explain the strategic importance of Belarus for peace and security for the region. So that’s why I’m here: to communicate to senators, congressmen, representatives of Trump’s administration, the State Department . . . just to synchronize strategy regarding Belarus. So this is my main duty at the moment.

Peter Rough:

So before we get to American policy on Belarus and the messages you’re trying to send, the new administration and the new Congress, let’s go to Belarus for a second. In late March when Lukashenko took office for the seventh time, he said, you have no future to the Democratic opposition and you at the same time, were rallying dissidents and opposition leaders, I think in Vilnius on the anniversary of the Belarusian People’s Republic of 1918, when there’s that short-lived period at the end of the Russian Empire, what do you say to Alexander Lukashenko when he says you have no future? What is the state of the opposition movement? What are you doing to keep the flame alive?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So maybe I will give some context of Belarus. Because I think that not many people know what Belarus is, the country, what Belarusian people are as a nation. So our country is, for 30 years, under dictatorship. Lukashenko came to office in 1994. Since then, he’s ruling. But our people and experts consider that every election except the first one were fraudulent. Since Lukashenko came to power, he started to build his personal vertical of power. He trained his personal military apparatus and an uprising actually took place two years after Lukashenko came to power because he wanted to change constitution. So he started to show all the brutality of his regime. He oppressed people, he put people in jail, he killed his opponents. And step by step people were afraid to say something, to be vocal. And this is how dictatorship actually is born.

And Lukashenko believed in his power so much. He was sure that Belarusians are so loyal, they’re so quiet, they will never oppose to him. Ever election we had uprisings and each uprising has been suppressed. In 2020 it was really different year, different situation because Belarusians were fed up with dictatorship. Belarusian people got the opportunity before to travel to see how democratic world lives. And they had a possibility to compare our country and democratic world because for all these years it was propagandistic narrative that its rotten in the West. Western values mean nothing. Everybody in the West is threatening us, want to invade us. And only in Russia, he is our partner. He is our friend. Those simultaneously Lukashenko is trying to play a see-saw game when he needs cheap oil. He made more friendship with Putin. When he needed some assistance money from the West, he was playing with the West.

But nevertheless, a new generation grew up who maybe didn’t remember Soviet Union, who didn’t have nostalgia of Soviet Union. And people wanted changes. We want to be normal, prosperous nation. And we saw how Lukashenko was always dragging us back into the past—the Soviet Union past, closer to Russia. And people want prosperity. We are a wonderful hardworking nation who really could change Belarus for better economically and politically. And in 2020, several people declared that they want to oppose Lukashenko, very new, fresh people, including my husband. And Lukashenko was so scared of these people that he decided to preliminary put them in jail. So he excluded all the opponents. And when my husband was jailed, I absolutely had no political background. I was ordinary woman. But I stepped into this presidential election campaign just to support my husband first of all. And then I was supported by huge amount of people, millions of Belarusians. And this is how my political path started. And I think that’s Lukashenko. He underestimated desire of people for changes. He thought, oh, these slaves will not be able to do anything. This is my country.

But after fraudulent elections of 2020, people went to the streets massively and Lukashenko unleashed the most brutal terror our country has seen for all his governance. Several next months people went to the streets daily, millions of people and his KGB among the policemen—people were beaten. People who were beaten were women, were minors, people of all professions and ages went to the street to show the decisive no to Lukashenko. But he managed to suppress the uprising. So just for some context, next day after elections, the KGB people forced me to leave the country. They thought if the leader of movement is sent to exile, so the movement will somehow disappear. But it didn’t happen that time. And so people continued to go to the streets. And since then for five years our fight is not stopping. At the moment we have at least 1,200 political prisoners and detentions are happening daily.

At least half a million Belarusians left the country because of repressions, and are continuing to leave. So now Belarus is huge jail at the moment. But the fact is that Lukashenko continued to detain people because he understands that he didn’t manage to turn the page of our history. He didn’t manage to fully suppress the Belarusian people. People in Belarus, they went mostly underground, continued resisting. Those people who are in exile can be more vocal, more active. And this our resistance continued. And Lukashenko is afraid of people. He behaves as if there are still thousands of people standing in front of his palace. He knows that as soon as he stops repressions, people will be on the streets again. So he didn’t manage this time to persuade people to like him again, love him again, trust him again. So our fight is continuing and Lukashenko underestimated the will of people for changes. But we as Belarusian society also underestimated the brutality of the regime. We just somehow believed that if this dictator will see millions of people in the streets asking for peaceful transition of power, he would agree. And also we, at that moment in 2020, we didn’t know that Putin will need loyal Lukashenko to invade Ukraine. He’ll need our territory. So maybe these two main factors influenced that we didn’t manage to dismantle this regime, but also maybe slow reaction of powerful democratic world.

Peter Rough:

Well that actually tees up, I think, an interesting question, which is, How essential were the Russian security services in the crackdown in 2020? Would Lukashenko have managed to contain and repress the situation absent support from Moscow?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Look, we still don’t know all the details. Belarusian people believe that Belarusian policemen cannot be so cruel towards Belarusians. Because the beatings were awful. People, including men, had been raped, had been beaten to death. It was really like I saw those blue bodies full of bruises and I still can’t believe that it could be only Belarusian policemen. So some people say that Russian troops, like, policemen came to help Belarusian policemen, but we don’t have proof of this. But who knows, people say that Russian troops were nearby Belarusian borders just in case Lukashenko will not manage to suppress the uprising himself. So the Russians will come to rescue him.

Peter Rough:

Every once in a while, there is a story that pops which underscores Lukashenko rather primitive understanding of modern economics. What is the economic situation though in Belarus today?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So let’s also start from the ’90s, because when the Soviet—

Peter Rough:

Back to the beginning.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

—the Soviet Union collapsed, Belarus as a country was in a better situation, was more advanced, profitable than other countries. For example, we had huge enterprises. We have potash as natural resources. And for example, Poland wasn’t very rich. Poland is our neighboring country, but now we are  stuck in the 1990s. Not many things have developed. Lukashenko privatized all the enterprises. Now it’s state enterprises. People cannot develop private businesses because of the atmosphere of uncertainty, where, if you are too rich, the regime can come to your business and take the business, privaticize your business. So you feel not sure developing your businesses in Belarus. Though with the development of IT sphere, we have wonderful IT specialists who, because Lukashenko didn’t understand this sphere, technology so and so forth. So this could be developed without his interference. And actually all the incomes of potash of natural resources went to the pockets of Lukashenko, not to the people. I can’t say that Belarus now is economically blossoming because people don’t gain all the profits of trade. And I think that we could live much more better if people were allowed to bring investments to Belarus to develop the private businesses. We are a hardworking, wonderful nation. We can maybe be a prosperous country. But with such governance it’s impossible.

Peter Rough:

What are some of the biggest hurdles of operating in exile from outside of Belarus to try to maintain your political connectivity and your opposition essentially to the regime in Minsk, especially when he’s using all of the levers of the state to maintain power and control?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Of course, working from exile, it’s not easy. But I realized that being in Belarus, I would be in jail, and all the opponents and activists would be in jail as well. But I have to say that for these five years we really achieved a lot. I managed to build alternative institutions of power in exile. We keep the unity of our movement. We are working with civil society, with human rights defenders. We are working with our free media who also broadcasting from exile at the moment because media had been ruined in Belarus. We managed to formalize a relationship with democratic world. We have strategic dialogue with the USA Canada, UK, European Union. We managed to achieve legitimization of our movement because now democratic world for example, doesn’t legitimize Lukashenko. They don’t send ambassadors to Minsk. They didn’t recognize two fraudulent elections. Instead they send special envoys to work with democratic forces of Belarus.

We perceive it on the highest level during our official visits. Also, what is important for me is to keep constant connection and communication with the people on the ground—not to live in our exiled bubble, where it’s rather safe to work, but to keep communication with people in Belarus because they are our major strength. Those people in Belarus continue to fight, provide us information on what’s happening in Belarus. We have so many informants from regime structures even. They provide us information—how sanctions are recommended for example, or how Lukashenko is militarizing our enterprises to produce military stuff for Russia, for Cuba, China, so on and so forth. So we get this information from inside and spread it to all those who are interested. So I’m really proud that there are some people who managed to keep this movement united. We have very wide network of Belarusian  diaspora all over the world.

Peter Rough:

Where are those mostly spread about? Where is the Belarusian diaspora? Is there a significant one in the US?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Look, most of those who left after 2020, they’re based in Poland and Lithuania because it’s close to Belarus and we are always ready to return back. But we have diaspora in the USA of course, in Canada, the UK, everywhere. They also working very hard to keep Belarus high on the agenda in their countries. There are problems with the politicization of the Belarusian people, especially after 2020 when our country became so a co-aggressor. And some in Belarus—and our task here as well—is to distinguish, to explain the difference between the Belarusian regime, who became a collaborator in this war, and the Belarusian people who have to be supported.

Peter Rough:

You’ve mentioned that you have lines in where you gain information about sanctioned circumvention and how the Belarusians support the Cubans, et cetera, et cetera. On the other side of that coin, do you have almost like a network of democracy activists? And is there sort of a sense of solidarity between Cuban opposition leaders, yourself, and opposition leaders from other parts of the world? Is there a dissident community of sorts?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

I think that every fight for democracy, for changes, for freedom has a lot in common, but also have different context. And of course we are communicating with other freedom fighters from Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and different regions because we really have possibility during these meetings to share instruments and tools, how we fight. Because the world is changing, we are sharing useful contacts in Europe and the US. We are just promoting each other’s fight because the fight for democracy is global one. And we join our efforts to explain to democratic countries how it’s important to contribute to the nations who are fighting against dictatorship, who are on the front line of this dictatorship. So it’s good to share platforms to be allowed.

Peter Rough:

Are you able to have any contact with your husband who’s imprisoned?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So my husband is already five years in prison, and last two years he’s kept in full isolation, we call it incommunicado mode. For two years. I don’t know where he is, what is happening to him. The lawyer is not allowed to visit him at all. No letters are delivered. My children continue to send letters constantly and never received letters back. So I even don’t know if he’s alive. I want to believe he is. And we have at least 10 people who are in this incommunicado mode. And of course it’s painful. You don’t know what’s happening until your beloved, you don’t what’s happening to a friend. But by doing this, regime wants to first of all ruin morale of those heroes who sacrifice their freedom for values, for a better future. They want to persuade political prisoners that the world has forgotten about them, nobody’s fighting for them, nobody pays attention to you. And they want to break them morally.

And I want to believe that there are ways inside prisons to deliver messages from freedom that the world is watching. The world has not given up on releasing of political prisoners. And actually I’m grateful to efforts of President Trump on releasing political prisoners. Recently a couple of people have been released by Trump’s administration. And today we got good news that more 42 people have been released from Belarusian prisons, joint efforts of democratic forces of human right defenders and of course Trump’s administration. And I encourage President Trump not to stop here because it’ll be a really historical achievement if the president will manage to release thousands of political prisons from Belarusian jail. He has real power to do this, to be consistent, to be principled regarding this issue. And of course they welcome all the experts, senators, congressmen to support these efforts.

Peter Rough:

Vice President Vance mentioned earlier today, or talked about President Trump’s less well understood humanitarian impulse that he actually cares about these issues and that they can grab his attention. Let’s go to Russia briefly. I think Belarus shares a 6- or 700 mile long border with Ukraine. It was a crucial invasion vector for President Putin in the early stages of the war. It remains an open vulnerability, in some respects, to the Ukrainians. I mean it’s heavily mined, but they know that that’s a vector that could always reopen. And in a way, I think from the point of view of Washington, Lukashenko has really become almost a satrap or a junior partner to Vladimir Putin, even if Belarusian armed forces aren’t actively fighting in Ukraine. One thing that’s often discussed in the context of the Putin-Lukashenko relationship is this idea of a union state. Can you explain what this idea is and where it stands today?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So first of all, I wouldn’t call Lukashenko “junior partner” to Putin. He’s a war criminal, Lukashenko is a war criminal. He provided our territory to attack Ukraine in February 2022. And he has to bear the full responsibility for this. Don’t present him as half guilty. The fact that Belarusian army didn’t join Russian army is not the mercy of Lukashenko. It’s Belarusian people who are against the war, who are supporting Ukrainian people. And in case it was the order to attack Ukraine, for Belarusian soldiers, they would defect, they would hide, they would change the sides, but they would never fight with Ukrainians because they were very close nations. We have similar languages, similar history. So Lukashenko can use this, but Lukashenko is a war criminal, let’s not forget about this. So now Lukashenko is a person who is serving to Russia’s interests, not to Belarus’s. So he hates everything Belarusian.

Together with Putin, they’re trying to erase everything Belarusian from our lands. They are ruining our national identity. They hold process Russification of Belarus. We see how Russia interferes in all the spheres of Belarusian life: education, media, economy, military, all the spheres. We see Lukashenko just sustain power to be supported by Putin economically and politically. He’s selling our country, our independence piece by piece to Putin. Actually, because of policy of Lukashenko, we are threatened by losing our independence at all. And here also it’s important for me to deliver the message to the United States of America, how it’s important not to abandon Belarus. Now during these peace talks, peace negotiations, because we understand that if Belarus is postponed for later or is not included into these peace talks, we might be given as a consolation prize to Putin and there will be no peace insecurity for the whole region without a free and democratic Belarus.

So because you’re talking about the border: we have a 1000 kilometer border with NATO countries, a 1000 kilometer border with Ukraine, and a 1000 kilometer border with Russia. So it will be like a hub. Belarus might be hub for further invasion on European Union or further attacks on Ukraine if you will not dismantle this regime and get rid of these Russian claws on our country. So we are a European nation. We want to be part of European alliance. And it is Lukashenko who is dragging us back to Russia and history into Russia. So they invent in this union states it’s not the will of the Belarusian people. It’s only for Lukashenko’s political career. And everything Lukashenko does is actually against the people’s wishes. So we urge our democratic partners not to recognize any deals that have been made after 2020. They have done not according to the laws, against the people. So it’s like Lukashenko’s ambitions, not the Belarusian people.

Peter Rough:

I read, I think in the South China Morning Post the other day, that this will be the first time that mainland China, Beijing, sends an honor guard to Minsk for Victory Day celebrations. And then I also I think saw yesterday or the day before, a senior Belarusian economic official note that the PRC, the People’s Republic of China, is now the third biggest direct investor in [Belarus], which isn’t saying that much. There isn’t that much direct investment flowing into Belarus. But nonetheless, how do you understand the relationship between China and Belarus today?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

China is very pragmatic. They used to invest in Belarus because we understand that Belarus is a strategic hub for trade and with Europe—it’s like a gate to Europe. But after 2020 they very much decreased the investments into Belarus because they see the situation is . . . it’s not stable. Sanctions have been imposed on Belarus. So China doesn’t like this, but Lukashenko needs China, a strategic partner to show to the world that, look, we are making friendship with . . . China. So they put in a lot of efforts to keep this connection with China. But of course until there is economic stability in Belarus, China doesn’t look on Belarus as strategic partner for themselves. But here we also understand that Belarus is part, is link of this chain of the axis of evil China run Russia, Cuba, Venezuela. Belarus is all very often overshadowed. Belarus is not perceived as excess of evil, but it’s—

Peter Rough:

A delegation in North Korea. I think maybe yesterday.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

North Kore, I forgot about this. So dictators are making alliances, they’re using each other to circumvent sanctions to earn money. And that’s why again, it’s so important to cut this chain. And the easiest way to do this is to drag Belarus out of this chain. And it’s actually low-hanging fruit for Trump’s administration. It’s very easy, with the power and strength that the USA has, to stop Lukashenko and weaken Russia, weaken China. So a democratic Belarus is in the interest of the USA as well.

Peter Rough:

Well let’s talk about that then. If you had a five-minute meeting with President Trump, what would you urge him, concretely, to do on the Belarus issue?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So at the moment I have two requests to President Trump. The first one is to release all political prisoners from Belarus. As I said, it’s in his power. I would say it’s rather easy to do this for the USA. But we need consistency and a principled position. And the second one is to be peacemaker, not only for Ukraine but also for Belarus. We need a strong mediator between the Belarusian people and regime. I told you that we want peaceful transition of power. What we need is free and democratic elections in Belarus, but we have to start this dialogue with this regime. And President Trump might be the person who would try to reconcile . . . for us to start communicating. So that would be my two requests at the moment.

Peter Rough:

I know you were in, I think, Dallas to meet with President George W. Bush, who’s worked on the freedom agenda and support for opposition forces around the world for many years now. And since you’ve been in Washington, you’ve also been up on Capitol Hill. Tell me a little bit about what it’s like talking to congressmen or senators about Belarus. Is there still a learning curve? Is there a certain direction they’d like to see policy go in Belarus?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So first of all, about President Bush, I just have to say that he’s really hero for Belarusian people because he was the first president who really was interested in Belarusian topic. He was really a freedom fighter and he was the president who signed first Belarusian Democracy Act that is continuing to live until now. He received many Belarusian democratic delegations just to highlight our issue. And we are really grateful for this attention. I have to say that the Belarusian case, it’s not contradictive at all. The Belarusian case unites parties, unites people, unites countries. It’s very clear everything in our situation: regime who is killing, murdering, torturing people, and people who want changes. So I see that there is understanding of the situation in Belarus among congressmen and the senators. They would like to help us and we of course come with concrete proposals what can be done.

Peter Rough:

They always need those on Capitol Hill. So that’s good.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Yeah. So first of all, we need a special envoy to be appointed to work with democratic forces of Belarus. Just have to say that such special envoy has already been appointed back in 2020. Yeah. President Trump sent an ambassador to Minsk, Julie Davis. She wasn’t accepted by regime and she was reappointed a special envoy. Democratic crisis of Belarus is fantastic bridge between people and the USA. And now we need the next person who will work on this position. We need new version of the Belarusian Democracy Act to be promoted and signed by President Trump. Hopefully it’ll happen. Also, we ask our friends here to launch programs of support for Belarusian democratic movement, for the Belarusian media that, with this cut-off assistance, influenced a lot the state of Belarusian democratic forces. Because most of the free media had been supported by the USA, and Radio Free Liberty was very essential in connecting Belarusians in exile and in the country, and was vital to counter Russian propaganda. So we really need programs of supporting, and hopefully that these programs will be launched, like direct aid to human rights defenders, to media, to civil society of Belarus, because we are really on the front line of fighting against dictatorship. And the USA was always a beacon of hope and hold this torch of fighting for freedom. And I think it’s like we as look on the USA as the provider of this fight for democracy, right? Yes, this is what we need. So hopefully we’ll manage to move this issue forward.

Peter Rough:

So those are your points for the Americans. The next big international gathering of the European political community, in Albania, will take place. What’s your message to the Europeans and what are your concrete asks of some of your European partners and allies?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

So first of all, I also will be in Albania, in EPC. I just have to say that many unprecedented things have been happening in Europe in the USA, just regarding Belarusian democratic forces, because we are invited on such events and forums where we are not part of. But understanding the meaning of Belarus’s fight, we are invited to have our voice there. So there is a full understanding of the discussion on Belarus in our European friends, we see the eagerness to help, to assist us. Because free, democratic Belarus is in the interest of Europe as well. Because without freedom of Belarus, there will be constant threats to Western countries. They fully realize this. So, and my message is first of all to stay united. Stay united within European Union. But also we need this transatlantic alliance to be strong and to be consistent because sometimes governments are changing and some leaders can be more loyal maybe to dictators. And this is why dictators survive: because they wait until government will change and maybe they could make deal with the—

Peter Rough:

More sympathetic.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

—more sympathetic, yes. So stay consistent. We have to understand, and, actually the democratic world has to understand that dictators cannot be reeducated. You cannot change behavior of dictators. Dictators cannot be appeased. Dictators can only be fought. So we want democratic world to be consistent in the policy regarding dictators. And also we want dictators to be brought to accountability for their crimes. My message is just that encourage your democratic institutions to work effectively, to work in full because sometimes they’re rather slow.

Peter Rough:

But do you feel good about the support you get from both the European Union and the individual states and Europe for your cause? Or does it vary based on who you’re speaking with?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Actually no. I feel almost full unity among democratic countries. Maybe Hungary is a little bit . . . has different policy. But Brussels is very supportive and on national level, many national-level countries are also trying to contribute into our programs, into society, into Belarusian media. Just one of the examples of solidarity is recently together with Norway, we launched international humanitarian fund for repressed people who are released from prisons. They are in an extremely difficult physical and emotional state and they need some rehabilitation. We cannot fundraise ourselves enough money to support all these people. There are hundreds of them. So that’s why we ask the democratic world to help us and every country can contribute into this fund and people get rehabilitation help from this fund. So this is one example, but so many countries trying to help and assist us differently.

Peter Rough:

Great. Well Sviatlana, it’s a real honor to have you here. Like I said, those of you watching at home, you’ll see there’s those cameras in the ceiling. I hope you enjoyed the conversation. Those of you who came here in person will have a chance to actually interact a little bit because she’s agreed to stay on for a few minutes afterwards and mingle with all of you. So get your cameras ready now you can turn your cell phones back on to take pictures if you like. But for those of you at home and those of you here in person, thanks so much for joining us for today’s program. Thank you so much for your courage, your bravery, and for standing strong and to catch more of our programming, please join us at hudson.org and you can catch all of our scholarship there. So thank you all very much and thank you ma’am for being here.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:

Thank you.