In this week’s episode of China Insider, Miles Yu covers the increase of People’s Liberation Army naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal in response to United States–Philippines joint military exercises, and what this development indicates about China’s evolving maritime strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Second, Miles unpacks the decision by the Chinese Football Association to issue 73 lifetime bans to coaches and players for match fixing, and details the larger network of corruption across professional sports in China. Finally, Miles reviews the executions of 11 Ming mafia family members related to scam centers based in Myanmar, and what this judicial process reveals about the current state of bilateral relations between China and Myanmar.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute’s China Center, hosted by China Center Director and Senior Fellow, Dr. Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat and their implications to the US and beyond.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
It is Tuesday, February 3rd, and we have three topics this week. First, we cover the recent PLA Naval and Air Up patrols conducted around Scarborough Shoal in response to US Philippine joint military exercises near the shoal earlier last week, and what this development indicates about China's evolving maritime strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Second, we unpack the decision by China's football association to issue 73 lifetime bans to coaches and players for match fixing and corruption. Finally, China carried out the executions of eleven members of the Ming Mafia family related to scam centers based in Myanmar, and what this implies for current bilateral relations between the two countries. Miles, great to be with you again this week.
Miles Yu:
Nice to be with you again, Colin.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
So some fun topics on the docket for today, but up first we got China's Southern Theater Command who issued a statement regarding naval and air patrols conducted near the Scarborough Shoal, just off the Philippine and territorial waters for reasons related to combat readiness and for resolutely countering the infringement provocations of individual countries within the region. While not mentioned explicitly, the statement most certainly refers to the US and Philippines as the infringing nations after they carried out joint military exercises earlier in the week around the shoal as well. Scarborough Shoal has been a longstanding flashpoint, as it were in the Indo-Pacific and strategic island mass for China's planned maritime strategy. So Miles, what's the significance of these military patrols and statements from the PLA and how do these factor into China's larger maritime strategy in the region?
Miles Yu:
Let me just answer your last question first. How does this fit through China's larger strategic vision? It's a very good question because the world fixated on Taiwan scenario. The United States overwhelmingly focused on Taiwan. When you talk about US-China competition in the real military operation perspective, we focus on Taiwan. Now, China's provocation in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippines point to a much larger perspective that is Taiwan is not just one hotspot. China has a much broader scheme of provocations. South China Sea China wants to claim almost all of it. So this is much more serious in my view. And if China fire is the first shot, it's possible it'll be over Taiwan, but it's more likely over the issues involving the Philippines, the Indians. So this is not really a regional issue, it's much broader perspective. China wants to focus on primarily the closest allies of the United States.
The Philippines is the only country in Southeast Asia that has a mutual defense arrangement with the United States. In other words, an attack on the Philippines is tantamount to attacking on the United States. We have a similar arrangement in Northeast Asia as well with Japan and with South Korea. But Philippines is the only one in Southeast Asia. That's why this whole issue, China is acting very cranky and productive is really about the United States. So Philippine is very important. You talk about the discover show. Suba show is in the short distance from the Philippine mainland. It's about several hundred miles away from Chinese closest territory. So it's definitely the Filipino territory and also within the Filipino EEZ zone. China took it by force during the Obama administration, and China has been using discovery show as a sticking point to the Filipinos and to the Americans. And this is a combat redness patrols dramatically intensify the tensions in the region. So that's why I think it's very dangerous. We should look at this not just as China's targeting one particular country. It's a beginning of a much broader scheme of aggression in the whole region, including Taiwan, India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and of course the countries along the South China Sea, primarily the Filipinos.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, Scarborough Shoal has been the focus of Sino Philippine tensions really for quite some time. But I think really since the 2012 standoff and blockade, which has since led to a list of issues, harassment of Filipino fishermen by the PLA and Chinese Coast Guard, preventing them from entering the traditional fishing waters around Scarborough Shoal. Numerous events involving water cannons and hull ramming operations, airspace, intimidation, swarming tactics. One of the more recent developments occurred last year. I think you saw Miles the Beijing issued the National Nature Reserve designation in 2025 to create a pretext for stricter controls and justify exclusion of Filipino fishermen. So why does Scarborough Shoal in particular matter so much to China? And I guess kind of to counter that, what is the Philippines currently doing? Or rather, what can they do to counter the malign influence and I guess extrajudicial occupation of the Shoal?
Miles Yu:
China's strategic culture regards countries like the Philippines as a little country. So it is outrage for the Chinese communist leadership that a little country like the Filipino, like the Philippines dares to challenge the supremacy superiority of China in this area, China considers the entire Western Pacific as a backyard. So that's one of the reasons why China is particularly angry at the Filipinos. And the Filipinos are a traditional ally of the United States. As a matter of fact, the mutual defense arrangement between the Philippines and the United States is the oldest US mutual defense arrangement in the entirety of Asia. So much older than the treaty with Japanese with the South Koreans. So you can see this is really about the US China confrontation. On the other hand though, it's not really just about United States, is China against the entire world? Because the United Nations body of this permanent court of arbitration ruled in 2016 against China.
It was a lawsuit brought up by the Filipinos against the Chinese. So according to the UN Convention on the law of the Sea, the unclosed, the court ruled that China's claim in the entire South China Sea is without a legal basis. So China basically doesn't care about the international law even though China signed the UNCLOS law agree only on paper to adhere to the ruling of the international arbitrary treaty arbitration. So this is basically Chinese afront to the international order in my view. So the consequences could be very, very serious because the risk miscalculation and is a dramatic escalation of the tensions in international water. South China say doesn't belong to any particular country as China claims. China, south China Sea is a international commons and over half of global trade go through that body of water. So it's very important for us to keep the South China Sea International. It's not the sovereign. Now you might have some kind of clean within the twelve mile sort of a sovereign territorial water rule, but as a matter of fact, the vast area of the ocean open ocean doesn't belong to anybody. China is claiming the whole area, and I don't think that's really going to get China anywhere. It just once again shows that China is a bully. And in West Pacific, just like the Japanese or in the 1930s,
Colin Tessier-Kay:
It seems like there's, you mentioned the 2016 ruling of the UNCLOS litigation between the Philippines and China, and it seems really what's lacking here is some sort of enforcement mechanism, right? Because there have been many instances of conflict and clashes between the Philippines and PLA Navy in the Indo-Pacific and not just over Scarborough Shoal alone, but these have all remained at least to date within the parameters of gray zone operations. So they haven't necessarily predicated on kinetic conflict escalation, but miles at what point would a potential clash or conflict invoke the mutual defense treaty between the US and Philippines? And I guess what would have to happen for that process to unfold?
Miles Yu:
According to the US Philippine mutual defense treaty, any attack on Filipino sovereign assets including territory territorial water vessels, aircraft will be considered as a trigger for the invocation of this mutual defense obligations. Now the question was not clear at the time and for many decades, that is the invocation only is restrict to Filipino under attack in the Pacific. So was China Sea was South China Sea, part of the Pacific. That was not very clear until Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo went to the Philippines in 2019, I believe, and dramatically clarify with the Filipinos that the United States consider South China a part of the Pacifica that will be within the treaty definition of mutual defense obligations. So that basically is a very clear and iron cloud. Now you mentioned about the US resolve to help its treaty ally, not just United States. You got some of the major NATO countries also imply there might participate. That's why they have so many of the freedom of navigations voyages along with Americans lead of course navigations, great Britain, Germany and France and you name it. So even Canadians have done similar things from a NATO member's point of view.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that dynamic unfolds. It's going to remain at least as analysts predict within the scope of Gray Zone operations. But anything could happen in any kind of event that would present an emerging crisis. But-
Miles Yu:
Excuse me, I may want to add one more thing. That is China always use the rules of Taiwan being part of the Chinese territory. They want to have some kind of liberation or not reunification of Taiwan with the modern land. Now the Philippines is not in any stretch of imagination part of China, but the Chinese are going after Philippines are sovereign country. So if China attacks Philippines, the international repercussion will be much more robust and without any ambiguity. This is a very important point.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, that's a very important distinction to make, especially as it concerns the Mutual Defense Treaty obligations. But turning to our next topic today, one of China's governing sports bodies, the CFA or Chinese Football Association has issued lifetime bans to 73 individuals and 13 professional clubs involved in match fixing and corruption, including China's former national team, head coach and Everton player Leakier. This isn't exactly the first instance of corruption in Chinese professional sports, especially for football, which has had longstanding issues with match fixing and corruption among top professional clubs and owners. So Miles, what's in the background on this mass ban and what impact will this have on the CFA and sport overall in China?
Miles Yu:
China's official name is the People's Republic of China, PRC. What it really stands for is the people's republic of corruption. And you got a culture that is intrinsically related to the corruption nationwide and it's just like, it's an unbelievable social and political phenomenon. And this once again is illustrated in this most popular sport in China that is a soccer also known as football incorrectly by any countries outside of United States. So the lifetime ban to 73 individuals is almost a kind of itself because you mentioned Lier is a Chinese national coach, man's coach of between 2019 to 2021. This guy's already in jail for 20 years. So it doesn't mean anything for him to be banned for life. It's just a symbolic gesture to the nation that the party seemingly to be very serious about fixing this issue. This is a national disgrace.
China’s national men's soccer team is really a disgrace to the nation. It's a deep seated humiliation to the whole nation. I mean people in China across all sectors had this team because they were so incompetent they couldn't win anything. Now people say maybe it's because Chinese do not have a soccer culture that's total nonsense. Chinese are very good at some other sports. I think one of the major reasons why Chinese men's soccer team is so lousy, so incompetent because of corruption, you have this president of Chinese National Football Association took bribe in the tune of $10 million. He's now serving the lifetime prison imprisonment in jail. So he, among the 73 individuals who's been banned for life, it doesn't mean anything because he's already serving a lifetime sentenced in jail. So this is one of the reasons I also think that the reason why suddenly there was such a sweeping crackdown in the dramatic announcement is because Xi Jinping, the ultimate supreme leader, is China's biggest soccer fan.
He really, really wants to punish those guys who didn't win glory for China. So I think this is a behind this ship really had this very miraculous ways of showing off it's swiftness and its punishment. Now you mentioned about corruption, it does not really limit itself to China. Li Tie is a defensive midfielder for China's national team. You mentioned about how he actually played for the English Premier League Club Everton. He was there for four years. British paid him something like 1.2 million pounds for him on a four-year contract. This guy played there during his term in Everton, he scored zero goals. He only had three assists. So you might say he's culturally not really familiar to the English premier situation and he may have some kind of personal injury, but the fact is the British sign him up I think for the sole purpose of increasing evidence awareness in China and to increase the market share in the Chinese football watching because China soccer is a very popular game in China. People, particularly young people love it. So this is, I don't know how you call it, is the borderline corruption in my view. And along with the 73 lifetime bans are 13 professional clubs in Shanghai, in particular. And again, this is just like the bandage put to the real serious disease. It's called corruption. And I think unless China seriously dealing with match fixing bribery and all kinds of other corruption related to sports and Chinese soccer will see no bright future in my view.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
You mentioned about national glory and that really reminded me of just the history of Chinese professional sports and the emphasis on what that means for national rejuvenation because China's professional sports, especially those that compete on the global stage and in the Olympics. I'm also thinking now that we have the Olympics coming up this weekend have always been the priority focus of state investment with exceptionally well-resourced development programs and immense pressure to perform for national glory. And we are well aware of past scandals such as with the Chinese women's gymnastics team and other instances of corruption regarding match fixing and sports betting, even including the basketball leagues, which isn't all too surprising given the vast amounts of money that get poured into these leagues from top levels. So Miles, what exactly is it about the sports industry and professional leagues in China that allows for such vast networks of corruption and illicit activities?
Miles Yu:
You have to be transparent, you have to be rural based and China does not have this kind of culture. It's a political culture. So I do not doubt China can produce a first rate athletes particularly is related to the national goal. So you have some of the amazing athletes from China, but they were like a trend from the taller age onwards. And of course it is basically the goal of the government to achieve some kind of political goal. So this is a very brutal reality. On the other hand, you do have some other very good players, but there are mostly related to foreign countries like China's star winter sports. You will see her, the Eileen coup go, I mean she's from California, but she played for the national team of China and some of the very accomplished players, they were accomplished within the Chinese system, but they are really try very hard to be outside of the system.
So in other words, their accomplishment internationally is not because of Chinese system, but in spite of it. The very good example is a Chinese tennis player, Li Na, she won the Australian Open several years ago and she was one of the most individualistic person you can see from China. She's outside of this Chinese system, the Chinese government doesn't like her, but then that's how you gain fame and also sort of storm inside the Chinese system. It's a very twisted country. I think that China's sports brilliance can be achieved through fair game, through fair and judicious adjudication. A lot of Chinese referees and judges in the sports, they were all rigged. They took the money. I mean you got a Chinese President of a soccer association, national association took a bribe in $20 million. And that's basically how serious this issue is. And I think it's very progressive. That's why I think the PRC really should stand for people's republic of corruption or people's republic of cheating.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
A fitting name. But we move on to our final topic today, China has carried out the executions of 11 convicted members of the notorious Ming Mafia family responsible for conducting scam operations from centers that are based in Myanmar just across the border in the northeastern part of the country, as well as other convictions for the same members for homicide illegal detention fraud and operating gambling dens in China's judge young province, the Ming Mafia's scam operations and dens brought in a reported 10 billion yuan or $1.4 billion USD between the years of 2015 and 2023. So Miles, walk us through this outcome and perhaps you could shed light on why and how China has taken judicial action against crime and illicit activities based in a neighboring country like Myanmar.
Miles Yu:
Okay, so China is a country that has a very swift justice against organized crime within the Chinese sovereign domain. You cannot really run any casino business inside China, but China does allow the criminal elements to operate enormous fraud schemes. And the scam rings just allow China's periphery on border most prominently Myanmar and Cambodia. So for years now, China has pretty much organized all kinds of criminal activities in Northern Myanmar where the Myanmar government has very little control because it's pretty much like a Chinese semi colony there, and that is the major problem. So the casinos are run in Cambodia, but Northern Myanmar is a deeply hated scam center of the world. So they run high-tech electronic criminal scams targeting a lot of Chinese nationals as Americans. So chances are a lot of Americans get all the scam calls, all the investment schemes out of this northern Myanmar.
So the governments in this region, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, they are hopeless because those scam schemes were so large, they were syndicated supported by a very elaborate system of protection from China. So that's whatever reasons why Thailand and Cambodia went to war, because Thai government was seriously worried about those casino organized criminals impact Thai national security. So that's why the bomb, all these Chinese organized scam centers, casino criminal centers, groups inside Cambodia. Myanmar is a very different story because Myanmar government is weak in controlling northern region, which is mostly dominated by the Chinese. So what they have done is they arrest some of the top leaders, real leaders and exercise them to China and China to show its seriousness in dealing with this international crisis with these neighbors, particularly friendly neighbors like Myanmar. Myanmar is a dictatorship. Chinese love the Myanmar dictatorship. So they basically conducted a swift justice.
The only Chinese government knows the best that is execution. That's why they use their communist style, swift justice and kill executed 11 people last week. But this is not really a ultimate solution to solve this problem. The Chinese people also are very favorable with this scam operations out of Myanmar. You go to China, you mentioned the phrase mianbei, that means northern Myanmar and the people are so afraid of that. Now there's also an aspect of this scam that is China is known for a country that has insensible demand for harvester organs, particularly among those powerful, the rich and the old. And they all want to have organs harvest from the live bodies. A lot of Chinese were sort of bamboozled by this criminal gang systems to Northern Myanmar and many of them were killed just for their organs. This is really my cap. And you go to China, you talk to the parents about their disappearing children and their disappeared relatives, mianbei become a phrase of terror and fear. So that's one reason I think Chinese government want to show its seriously dealing with it, not just to modify its angry neighbors, but also to modify the outrage from the Chinese people.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Speaking more broadly, China shares borders with fourteen different countries more than every other nation besides Russia, which also just tied for fourteen and pays very strict attention to any potential developments that could jeopardize border security across all of them. So as it pertains to Myanmar, China perhaps has committed significant attention to the illicit activities of crime organizations based and operating just across the Chinese Myanmar border in the northeast region, the Myan Bay area that you mentioned of the country. So to achieve their security interests, China engages in this dual track diplomacy, right? Maintaining ties with both the State Administration Council (SAC) in Myanmar, as well as various Ethnic Armed Organizations to protect its borders. It kind of plays both sides of the equation here. It also certainly has interest in securing rare earth resources and securing planned BRI development initiatives. So to round out the discussion for today, miles, what is the current landscape of these arrangements? And is China perhaps looking to take a more aggressive approach to enforcement operations? I guess what exactly is the risk right now of a potential border conflict or crisis?
Miles Yu:
I think that this poses a dilemma. China wants to send its own cops. It's the military to go to these countries, go after this Chinese criminals that Chinese government wanted, but then that will infringe upon the sovereignty of those countries. So if you allow too many Chinese paramilitary people, there are cops there who knows they might do something else to sabotage the sovereign governments of those countries. So this is a major problem that's been going on for many, many decades. And without doing that, of course you got this problem of these Chinese criminals. I don't know to what extent some of them were tied to the Chinese security and intelligence apparatus, but I'm sure in countries like Thailand, Chinese penetration is pretty impressive over there. Now Myanmar, you mentioned something very interesting. Myanmar is one of the world's premier places for something that Chinese traditionally really value.
That is Jed Myanmar produce enormous amount of Jed that is high in demand in China. So to harvesting the jet materials from Myanmar has become a very lucrative business. So you see a lot of state government supported the efforts go to Myanmar, that has a severe ecological impact on Myanmar's landscape, and I think it has some local resentment as well. The problem is that China has to modify Myanmar, but also China has to be very firm to protects own interests because Myanmar is the country that has China's most valued assets. That is the oil and the gas pipeline that runs from the Bay of Bengal on the western part of Myanmar all the way through entirety of Burma, now known as of course as Myanmar to Kunming, which is inland city in China's Yunan province. So that is one of the, China's the most crucial energy security lifeline. So that's why this matter is very, very important. If China, when it comes to the most critical point you have to protect that I think Chinese is a penetration into Myanmar is going to be massive.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
That's a really good point to include there with the jade trade. But unfortunately we've reached our time for this week's conversation. Thank you to our listeners for joining us. And thank you Miles as always for lending us your time and expertise on these critical issues. Looking forward to speaking with you again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, so you next week.