Executive Summary
- Russian general shot: Vladimir Alexeyev, a high-ranking Russian general, was shot in Moscow and remains hospitalized in critical condition.
- Ukrainian drone operations: Ukraine’s STING drone-hunting systems successfully intercepted some of Russia’s most elite unmanned systems.
- Battlefield assessment: Moscow began using Gerbera drones as motherships from which to launch smaller loitering munitions.
- What to monitor: (1) Russian retaliation for the attack on Alexeyev and (2) a reloaded Russian push in Pokrovsk.
1. Russian General Shot in Moscow
Last week General Vladimir Alexeyev, the first deputy head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU), was shot in Moscow. Alexeyev is now hospitalized and in critical condition.
Ukraine has assassinated 19 Russian generals since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. But Alexeyev was not a conventional military figure. Instead, he emerged from the darker corners of Russia’s modern security establishment.
The general rose through the ranks of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), an elite branch historically associated not only with rapid deployment and shock operations, but also with missions that blur the line between conventional warfare and political coercion. From there, his career converged with the military intelligence community as Moscow was accelerating its turn toward irregular and plausibly deniable forms of state power.
This coincided with some of the most consequential covert and hybrid operations of the past 15 years. These include Moscow’s 2014 campaign in Crimea, where irregular warfare, deception, and proxy forces paved the way for the illegal annexation of the peninsula; and the 2018 nerve agent poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom. The latter operation underscored the Kremlin’s willingness to employ chemical weapons beyond its borders.
Within this ecosystem, Alexeyev became deeply involved in the construction of Russia’s so-called shadow forces. He played a significant role in establishing the Wagner private military network, which evolved into a principal vehicle for Russian expeditionary operations from Eastern Europe to Africa and the Middle East. When Wagner later became a liability for Moscow and its late leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched his armed putsch toward Moscow in 2023, Alexeyev surfaced as a stabilizing figure and contributed to efforts to contain and suppress the rebellion.
Alexeyev’s attempted assassination should be assessed alongside a growing pattern of targeted killings of high-level Russian military figures. These include the car bomb attack that killed Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov and the explosive planted in a motorized scooter that assassinated Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov.
Notably, all these operations occurred in Moscow. Open-source evidence suggests that Ukrainian intelligence has established sustained operational inroads into the Russian capital. Targeted assassinations of high-profile figures require prolonged, disciplined surveillance of a target and knowledge of his security detail, daily routines, and physical environment. Such operations also imply local facilitation, secure communications, and reliable exfiltration or compartmentalization.
The ability to execute multiple attacks of this nature in Moscow points to a level of intelligence penetration that goes beyond opportunistic action. It suggests methodical preparation and operational sophistication. Equally noteworthy is the implication that Ukraine—potentially with indirect or technical support from partner services—has demonstrated the capacity to monitor, track, and strike senior Russian military figures in the heart of Russia.
This pattern indicates that Ukraine views such operations not as isolated events, but as a sustainable tool to pressure the Kremlin. It is therefore likely that similar actions will occur again as part of Kyiv’s broader campaign to impose strategic and psychological costs on Russia’s military leadership.
2. Ukraine’s STING Drone-Hunting Systems Intercept Lancet-Baseline Loitering Munitions
Newly released battlefield imagery indicates that the Ukrainian drone group known as Wild Hornets has successfully employed its STING drone-hunting systems to intercept Russian Lancet-baseline loitering munitions. These engagements suggest that STING drones are not only effective against mass-produced Shahed platforms, but also against the upper echelon of Russia’s loitering munitions, including Lancets. This would mark an important shift in Ukraine’s counter-drone posture.
The Lancet family reflects Russia’s approach to high-end battlefield technology. The drone blends indigenous design with export-controlled microelectronics, such as NVIDIA chips, that Moscow has illicitly sourced from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states.
3. Battlefield Assessment
In marked contrast to recent weeks, heightened combat activity raged across the battle space last week, with some days seeing more than three hundred tactical clashes. The long-embattled Pokrovsk sector took most of the heat, accounting for roughly 20 percent of the overall fighting.
In this sector, Ukrainian open-source intelligence outlets reported a growing Russian troop presence, as well as small infantry assault formations infiltrating Ukrainian lines. This suggests Russian forces may mount a renewed push to capture the remainder of the city in the coming weeks.
Novopavlivka, Kupiansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka also saw combat, while heavy Russian air activity continued to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Nonetheless, territorial control did not change at the strategic level.
Notably, on February 4 a freight train carrying fuel exploded and derailed in the central Russian city of Tambov. Russia’s railway network is critical to the country’s war efforts, troop and equipment movements, and logistics. This report will continue to track any notable incidents along the Russian rail network.
Finally, Russia continued to innovate in drone warfare. Moscow has begun using its Gerbera drones as motherships to release smaller, first-person-view (FPV) drones into the Ukrainian skies. Because Russia used Gerbera drones in its September 2025 probing incursion into Polish airspace, last week’s expanded use of the drone no doubt caught the eye of NATO planners.
4. What to Monitor in the Coming Weeks
1. Possible Russian retaliation for the attack on General Alexeyev. Russia, like the Soviet Union, is ruled by the country’s powerful intelligence services. President Vladimir Putin himself rose to power through an elite security faction known as the siloviki. While General Alexeyev is not the first general targeted in the country, he stands out because of his proximity to Russia’s intelligence community. The Kremlin will likely seek to retaliate for his attempted assassination, including by attempting targeted killings inside Ukraine.
2. A reloaded push in Pokrovsk. As the operational tempo rises in the long-embattled city and Russian deployments increase, Russia will likely stage another large-scale offensive to conquer the remaining parts of the city still held by Ukraine.