South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will soon meet with President Donald Trump to discuss ways to repair the damaged United States–South Africa relationship. A confluence of events has soured the US on South Africa, and relations between the two countries are at their lowest point in years.
1. South Africa’s traditionally dominant party, the African National Congress (ANC), identifies with the “progressive international revolutionary movement” that opposes the global system underpinned by the United States. It believes the global balance of power is tilting away from the West and toward the East, and it has grown bolder in advertising its ideological affinity. The party refers to the US as a “hyper-power” with a “rapacious license of empire,” and believes the world is locked in an “ever-growing conflict” between developed and developing countries.
2. The South African government equivocated over who was at fault for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and ultimately expressed its support for Moscow. This put it at odds with Washington’s foreign policy establishment, which was highly supportive of Ukraine at the war’s outset.
South Africa also recently moved closer to China by trying to force Taiwan to move the de facto Taiwanese embassy from the South African capital of Pretoria. This upset US policymakers, especially in Congress, who view Taiwan as an important American partner.
3. Pretoria inserted itself into one of the world’s highest-stakes geopolitical contests by aligning with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. It is also leading the global effort to delegitimize the Jewish state by serving as the plaintiff in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case accusing Israel of genocide. In contrast, South Africa has a history of ignoring or defending the rights abuses of countries with which it is friendly. Since filing the ICJ case, the South African government has continued attacking Israel through other diplomatic means.
4. President Donald Trump has aggressively wielded American power to defend US interests, and South Africa has drawn Trump’s unfavorable attention since his first term. Several South African–born people also regularly speak to the president.
Trump’s antipathy for racialized laws and norms is a significant part of his domestic appeal in the US. Many of his supporters believe that race-conscious policies like affirmative action weaken societal unity and threaten meritocracy. South Africa, on the other hand, has adopted 117 race-based acts of parliament since 1994. Americans once saw the ANC as the anti-Apartheid party, exemplified by the leadership of Nelson Mandela. But this reputation is no longer sufficient to shield it and the South African government from American scrutiny.
Testing Sincerity in a New Era of Relations
Washington is responding to the ANC’s and Pretoria’s hostility and open alignment with America’s adversaries, signaling a new era in US–South Africa ties. The onus is on South Africa to make significant changes to repair the relationship.
Pretoria says it wants a good relationship with the US, but the South African government has a history of espousing friendship while aligning with America’s adversaries. Before patching up ties, Washington should test Pretoria’s sincerity. The Trump administration can watch and see if South Africa takes the following actions:
- Step back from its anti-Israel position. Pretoria should drop its anti-Israel ICJ case or deemphasize it by starving the effort of funds, putting less diplomatic weight behind it, and reassigning personnel away from the case. Pretoria could also restore diplomatic relations with Jerusalem.
- Stop joint naval exercises with China and Russia. South Africa has twice conducted joint naval exercises with Russia and China off its coast. But the South African military is in bad shape, and the country faces practically no naval threats. These exercises’ primary effect is to allow China and Russia to expand their blue water capabilities.
- Honor its agreement that allows Taiwan to maintain a representative office in Pretoria. As mentioned above, South Africa tried to force Taiwan to move its de facto embassy out of the capital. Pretoria should abandon these efforts.
- Ensure it does not try to impede US arms shipments. President Cyril Ramaphosa recently vowed to “prevent all arms transfers that risk enabling further violations of humanitarian law,” referring specifically to shipments going to Israel. Impeding or trying to coordinate the interdiction of American shipments to or from Israel would be a dramatic escalation that would likely provoke an aggressive American response.
- Treat farm invasions as a serious issue. Whether white farmers suffer a disproportionate rate of attacks and murders is hotly contested. One analysis found that the murder rate of white farmers was between two and three times higher than the rate for the general population. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the situation of white South Africans. Addressing farm violence would be a good place to start for the South African government if it wishes to show that it is committed to allaying Washington’s concerns.
- Create carve-outs to exempt American companies from Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment laws. Opposition to laws and norms that give preferential treatment to people of certain races animates a significant part of the movement backing Trump. Such laws also make US-based companies more hesitant to invest in South Africa. These rules are a significant barrier for American firms that wish to expand to South Africa, and are an economic drag on those already operating there. Rather than achieving their stated aim, these laws have largely enriched a small cadre of black elites. Creating special economic zones exempt from race-based restrictions could be one way to grant carve-outs for American firms.
- Strengthen domestic property rights. South Africa recently adopted a law that allows the government to expropriate private property with “nil compensation” in certain circumstances. This has stirred US policymakers’ fears over the potential effect on American businesses and the possibility for race-based property expropriation. Advocates of South Africa’s law claim these fears are misguided. But the ruling ANC is notoriously corrupt and remains committed to the principles of the National Democratic Revolution, including redistribution and the dismantling of so-called white monopoly capital. Washington is rightly wary of this law.
- Condemn ANC officials’ public disdain for the United States. Senior ANC personnel and official party documents express open contempt for the United States and its allies. Controlling the rhetoric of a fractious group like the ANC is difficult. But Pretoria makes no effort to publicly distance itself from such comments when they occur. Changing this would help rehabilitate Americans’ perceptions of the country.
- Offer the US a zero-tariff trade arrangement. As Trump seeks to negotiate trade deals around the world, South Africa could offer the president a generous agreement.
- Invest in the US mining sector. America needs more domestic mining companies to address its critical minerals supply chain problem. The Trump administration has made reviving this sector a priority, and South African mining investment, accompanied by skills transfer and trainings, could benefit the US.
- Work with the US to secure African critical minerals. South African mining companies operate throughout Africa, including in unstable regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo that are difficult for US firms to operate in. South Africa could help American businesses navigate local complexities and ensure Kinshasa delivers on its promises. Still, the US should vet partnerships with South African companies to ensure the firms are not linked to corrupt government officials or vulnerable to political influence.
- Give pro-Western parties senior positions within the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO). The ANC’s dominance over South Africa’s foreign ministry, known as DIRCO, has made the country’s foreign policy overly ideological. This has damaged South Africa’s economy and its standing in the world. Giving non-ANC and pro-Western parties senior positions within the department would signal that South Africa is trying to rectify the department’s ideological tilt.
The Future
If Pretoria demonstrates that it will address Washington’s concerns, both nations are likely to benefit. South Africa has an abundance of valuable minerals, Africa’s most advanced economy, a significant amount of US investment, and well-developed mining and agriculture sectors. For Washington, Pretoria is the gateway to southern Africa.
However, if the South African government hopes to fool Washington into believing it is a partner while undermining American interests, the relationship will remain icy. Washington should carefully weigh Pretoria’s actions to determine the truth.