Brussels is expected to present its new European Security Strategy (ESS) soon. Ahead of the annual State of the European Union address, Visegrad Insight asked experts what the grand strategy should contain and what it can actually change, with particular attention to Central and Eastern Europe. Below is Ulrich Speck's response.
The EU should resist the temptation to declare itself the future centre of European defence.
Instead of laying out a future great-power role for Brussels, the EU should be modest. The new strategy must define where the EU can strengthen European defence and deterrence within the EU’s limitations.
And there are many limitations. NATO will remain central for European security, in the form of NATO 3.0 with more balanced transatlantic burden-sharing. Important European military players are outside the EU, among them Britain, Turkey and, crucially, Ukraine. And member states will continue to call the shots.
Yet the EU has a role to play. It can help shape views and strengthen solidarity. It can support military mobility. It can facilitate cooperation in the arms industry. It can support the struggle against Russia’s hybrid and shadow war.
By focusing on what is possible, the EU would be far more impactful than by laying out a federalist fantasy.