Chokeholds and Choices: Securing Supply Chains in the US-China Rivalry

The world’s two largest economies remain deeply interdependent even as they race toward greater self-sufficiency. Recently, the United States and China reached a fragile détente in their trade war, anchored by China’s agreement to resume rare earth magnet exports and America’s lifting of technology export controls. This captures the paradox of US-China competition: mutual reliance collides with mutual distrust as both sides build up their supply chains for critical minerals and advanced technology.

Beijing’s integrated control over rare earths and other processing chokepoints reflects a deliberate, long-term strategy. Meanwhile, Washington’s shifting mix of tariffs and export controls suggests a more reactive, ad hoc approach. Is that contrast real or overstated? What lessons have emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, semiconductor shortages, and other disruptions? What more should the United States do—through reshoring, friend-shoring, and public–private partnerships—to forge a credible path to resilience? How might a US-China trade deal, potentially at a fall summit, alter this competition and the broader strategic rivalry? And finally, how can Washington leverage international relationships and tools like the Defense Production Act to secure its leadership in technology?

Senior Fellow Nadia Schadlow will join leading experts on supply chains and US-China competition for a panel discussion of these questions, moderated by Asia-Pacific Security Chair Patrick Cronin.