Just as military planners are often accused of preparing to fight the last war, geopolitical analysts sometimes may be fairly charged with trying to cram new developments into yesterday’s familiar frameworks. Such is the case with Ukraine today.
The security challenges and opportunities in Europe have changed irrevocably since Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. News accounts today focus on speculation about the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and what assurances Ukraine may receive about becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization at the alliance’s summit this week in Vilnius, Lithuania. But the challenge at the moment is a conceptual one: updating our strategic assessment to reflect emerging security conditions.