Preparing for the Dissolution of the Russian Federation

Key Takeaways

1. Preparing for every possibility of what the Russian Federation could look like at the end of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, whenever it may end, is not synonymous with calling for regime change. It is prudent for US and allied policymakers to have an awareness of the different social and ethnic dynamics within the Russian Federation and the potential cracks that may erupt.

2. Unlike the fall of the Soviet Union, when scholars and policymakers knew what the resulting 15 states would look like, it is unknowable which, and how many, ethnic groups in Russia may seek independence, let alone when. But it is almost certain that these ruptures will not align perfectly along the oblasts and republics depicted on the map today.

3. The first step in mitigating the effects of this potential dissolution is for US and allied policymakers to show up in the region as well as in friendly countries throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia. It will also require working with sometimes difficult allies like Turkey to ensure that China does not fill the power vaccum left on the Eurasian landmass.

While it is unknown when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will end, a Russian defeat would likely lead to the dissolution of the Russian Federation as it is known today. Because of the Kremlin’s decision to attack Ukraine, Moscow’s once extensive influence across Eurasia has dwindled, and the war has devastated Russia’s economy, military, and social stability. US and allied policymakers need to understand this possibility and prepare for the new Eurasian geopolitical reality that a fall of the Russian Federation might bring.

Join Hudson Institute and The Jamestown Foundation to discuss Russian domestic social friction and what US and allied policymakers need to do now to prepare for the country’s possible collapse.

Agenda: 

9:00 a.m. | Keynote Speech

Alexii Goncharenko, Ukrainian Member of Parliament

9:30 a.m. | Panel 1:  Ethnic and Social Fault Lines in the Russian Federation

Panelists:

• Janusz Bugajski, Senior Fellow, Jamestown Foundation  
• Paul Goble, Senior Analyst, Jamestown Foundation
• Natalia Arno, President, Free Russia Foundation
• Inal Sherip, Foreign Minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria

Moderator: 

• Glen Howard, President, Jamestown Foundation 

11:00 a.m. | Panel 2: What Can Be Done to Prepare for the Collapse of the Russian Federation?

Panelists:

• Luke Coffey, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute 
• Fred Starr, Founding Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program 
• Ambassador Temuri Yacobishvili, Former Ambassador of Georgia to the US

Moderator:

• Peter Rough, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia, Hudson Institute