In this week’s episode of China Insider, Miles Yu breaks down last week’s eightieth anniversary celebrations for victory in World War II and the People’s Liberation Army military parade in Beijing. The first part of the discussion focuses on the politics, dialogue between foreign leaders in attendance, and the international community’s response to the parade. The second focuses on the content of the parade, including the advanced weapons showcase and the PLA’s modernization efforts. Finally, Miles comments on the anti–Chinese Communist Party demonstration in Chongqing and the significance of this protest within the context of the anniversary celebrations.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute’s China Center, hosted by China Center Director and Senior Fellow, Dr. Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, Senior Fellow and Director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threats, and their implications to the US and beyond.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
It is Tuesday, September 9th and we have a slight change to our usual format this week as we look to cover the recent 80th anniversary celebrations and military parade held in Beijing early last week. While today's conversations will focus on the latest developments surrounding the celebrations and parade, we have split this week's topic into three separate discussions. The first focuses on the politics, optics, and international response to the parade. The second focuses on the content of the parade, the PLAs modernization efforts, and the advanced weapons showcased. And lastly, we discussed the domestic reception and acts of dissent and protest from Chinese citizens across the country within the context of the celebrations. Miles, great to be with you again this week.
Miles Yu:
Nice to be with you again, Colin.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
So we have a lot to cover this week, all in relation to the recent celebrations and parade in Beijing. So, let's jump right in here with the first discussion. Last week, China held its 80th anniversary celebrations for victory in World War II, with days of celebrations and fanfare, culminating with the final day's expansive military parade. The main concourse of the parade passed by Tiananmen Gate with Xi Jinping and other officials in attendance, including guests Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un, among several other foreign leaders. We've covered the planning of these celebrations in previous weeks on China Insider, but now that we're on the other side of the event, Miles, can you start us off here with an overview of the event and some background on the importance of mass military parades to the CCP?
Miles Yu:
Okay. If you look at the last several years, particularly in the last half a year, the world's attention focused on one place, one place alone, and on one individual, mainly that is President Donald J. Trump of the United States. China feels left out, so China needs attention, [and so] they do something extravagant like this. And China, sure enough, got this parade going on, mobilizing tens of thousands of people. The nation was pretty much shut down for this major extravagance and hoopla. So, this is meant to project an image of pride, strength, and power. So that's basically why China wants this. But most importantly, China wants to project an image [that they are] the leader of the anti-Washington coalition of course. And mostly, the members of this club of bad guys will include Vladimir Putin, a sort of wanted war criminal and the bad boy Kim Jong Un, plus the heads of states of Iran, Myanmar, and all those dictators, semi-dictators, and would-be dictators.
So this is not a very, very pretty sight, but China wants to project the image that it is the leader of the anti-West coalition. The world will be divided into two now, with Washington on one hand as the leader and China on the other side as the leader. So this is what China wants the world to believe. And to a certain degree, many people just watch this and a lot of people watching in the West, including myself, it is basically blase. So what? Many of the China Watchers watch this parade wearily, nevertheless, we're going into detail on this. I think we should keep in mind this is not a grand unity led by China. If you look at this, China invited 26 heads of state to attend. More than half of them are the central Asian leaders from very impoverished places, [like] the Stans and Armenia, and all the other places. And this was done immediately after the Central Asian-focused organization summit. It is called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So many people were there [in China] anyway, [and] they combined two trips into one to enhance the number of bodies watching over this [the parade]. So, this is basically what China wants to do. Oddly enough, as we said before, China did not want to invite people from Africa. Only two countries [had their] heads of state there, Congo and Zimbabwe. Only one country from Latin America showed up with its head of state, [and] that [was] Cuba. So I think one of the reasons is because most of the countries in Africa and in Latin America, when they go to China, what do they want? They want Chinese money. Xi Jinping is popularly known in China as that “big money dispensing idiot” (大傻币). So if you take away the money and this illusion of unity, the alliance collapses instantly.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
This was the third military parade under Xi Jinping, more than any other Chinese leader since Mao, I believe. Miles, you can check me on that. And he delivered a speech before the parade in commemoration of the anniversary with some interesting sound bites. Most were in line with his usual talking points of China's national rejuvenation and a strong China seeking to wield greater influence on the world stage, but also included some nuanced comments such as, “Humanity must choose between peace and war and dialogue and confrontation.” And he also concluded his speech with, “The Chinese people's rejuvenation cannot be blocked and the noble goal of the peaceful development of human civilization must triumph.” So a lot to unpack here, some old, some new rhetoric. Especially considering who was in attendance, Miles, this year seems like a big deal for Xi. What's different about this year's parade compared to perhaps 2015’s and even the unique guest list of foreign leaders here?
Miles Yu:
It's a divine comedy for Xi to say this is a parade about the word peace. He's surrounded by the world's most aggressive, most warlike criminals, like Vladimir Putin. So where's the peace? Where is the harmony and kumbaya? So this is really bizarre for Xi to say that. That's why Xi Jinping is someone who can speak two voices from both sides of his mouth. He's not to be trusted. That's why Chinese rhetoric [of] peace, harmony, and cooperation, all sound very hollow. China’s neighbors, they're all worried about China because China basically said, hey listen, we want peace, [but] in the meantime, I'm going to use water cannons, I'm going to bully you with our warships, I'm going to threaten you with constant harassment. China borders 14 countries [and] each one of them has had some problem with China in the last a hundred years or so. Half of them actually are ongoing tensions with India, with the Philippines, with Vietnam, with Japan, with South Korea, you name it. So for this country's [China’s] leader to say he loves peace, this is a supreme irony.
On the other hand, you mentioned that Xi Jinping loves parades. That's true. Mao loved parades too. Everybody in China who is at the top as the supreme leader loves parades. But normally these kinds of parades fall on two occasions, right? One is October 1st, that's a national day. Another one normally is August 1st, which is PLA Day. So they have gigantic celebrations over there. Now Xi Jinping, since he came to power in late 2012, he's got the usual kind of parades on national [days]. For example, in 2017, he had [a] 90th anniversary of the PLA [parade] at the military base in Zhuhe and he showcased his control over the military.
And then in 2019, he had a 70th anniversary of National Day [parade], the largest military parade. But Xi Jinping [did] something really, really interesting because he had two gigantic military parades over VJ Day, the military victory of Japan in World War II. This is a clumsy copycat act following the example of Vladimir Putin. Putin used World War II as an excuse basically to beef up his own domestic power. Now in the case of Putin, he actually deserves it, because Russia actually fought the Nazis tremendously with incredible suffering and sacrifice. So, for Russians to celebrate the end of World War II, [it is] totally justified. Now for the Chinese Communist Party to hold gigantic parades [for] the victory [over] Japan is totally ridiculous because the Chinese Communist Party didn't play any significant role at all in the defeat of Japan. It was the Chinese Nationalist government and its armies and ultimately it was American atomic bombs that really ended the war.
So that's why President Trump was absolutely right, that the victory over Japan needs to have this kind of American participation mentioned. And so, President Trump [says that he] was disappointed that Xi didn't really make that [clear] because Xi Jinping is a leader of the Communist Party who believed that it [the party] is invincible, it has done all kinds of other victories, real or imagined. In 2015, he had a Victory Day parade in Tiananmen square, which was also pretty bizarre at the time. Now, this year, of course, it was the 80th anniversary of World War II. This is the largest [parade] since the 2019 70th anniversary National Day parade. So [the parade is a] position to showcase the sort of a new generation of weapons, the big tools, but mostly, to show that the Chinese Communist party was the leading force leading to national rejuvenation. It's also a little bit bizarre, this really showcased the hypocrisy and the cluelessness of the party ideology.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
I'd like to round out the first discussion on politics of the parade with a bit to the international response and the implications for the US here. And certainly tying on and building off of the comments that you just mentioned with President Trump. As the parade kicked off, President Trump himself took to social media speculating whether Xi would recognize the contributions of Americans who fought in the war, like you said, and joked, “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un as you conspire against the United States of America.” To put this exchange in further context, just days before the parade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined Xi and Putin at the 10 nation summit in Tianjin, with some public show of personal relations. Later on, closed door talks between Putin and Kim occurred in Beijing during the celebrations with statements from Kim afterwards [that] affirmed further support of Russia's invasion, calling them a brother. Miles, I'd like to get your perspective here on what some experts are concerned could be the nascent formations of an Axis alliance here between several countries, but mostly concerned with China, Russia, and India. Do you share the same concerns and what exactly has been the overall international response following the parade and everything from there?
Miles Yu:
I share some of the concerns, but this idea that somehow there was a grand alliance led by China composed of Russia, North Korea, India, and whatnot against the United States and its allies is exaggerated. It's really unwarranted. First of all, there is a tremendous clash of ambitions. Every leader who goes there in Tiananmen Square has different ambitions, different goals. There's no commonly agreed to strategy. There's only resentment against the West, against Washington, DC in particular. Vladimir Putin wants relevance, China wants dominance, Kim Jong Un wants attention, Prime Minister Modi of India wants a venue to vent his passive aggressive unhappiness with Donald Trump, mostly as a result of the tariff spat between the two countries. So I think a lot of people have different ideas, and China, of course, created this illusion of this grand alliance against the West. Listen, it is far from that. China does not have the ideology [necessary for this alliance]. China does not have the credibility to be the global leader leading this bunch of people. Even Russia and North Korea do not fully trust China because China is very opportunistic. History has taught [them] many, many lessons. You know what? In Beijing as well as in Tianjin, [at] the SCO summit just before this parade, you know who upstaged Xi Jinping, the very wooden, wobbly, swollen-faced Chinese Communist dictator? In Tianjin, it was Modi. Modi proposed the major theme for that [SCO] summit. He's called it “the Earth, the Family and the Future.” And so, Xi Jinping had to adapt to that as a host. He [Xi] has no proposal of any significant framework. So, it was Modi that outshone Xi Jinping. That question, of course, Modi could not answer and nobody else did. It was alright, “one family” who is the head of a family? And “one future,” what kind of future? So nobody knows.
In Tiananmen Square, you know who upstaged Xi Jinping? It was Putin and Kim Jong Un. They were sort of the cutthroat tacticians. They really, really fought together now in Ukraine. China of course helped Russia but [also] basically wanted to hedge, right? So you can see, watch the body language of these two leaders. So what I am trying to say here is I am not terribly worried about this so-called grand alliance led by China against the West. Even bad guys [working] together don't work out a common goal and common strategy. And this is the case [here].
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Turning to our next topic of focus on the subject here, the military parade itself featured quite the retinue of military personnel and weapons. The ceremony kicked off with an 80 gun artillery salute followed by the national anthem. In addition to several PLA branches and flyovers from fighter jets, bombers, and helicopters, the parade showcased a mix of conventional weapons and advanced technologies including hypersonics, laser defense systems, and multi capacity drones, in an attempt to highlight China's significant investment in modernized capabilities and warfare operations. So, Miles, on this front, what should we make of the parade showcase from a security standpoint in terms of what was put on display? What's new and what's old news here?
Miles Yu:
I think a lot of stuff is about imagery, right? The Chinese military parade is the second best in the world. You know [who is] the best? North Koreans. They are very good, far better than Chinese. The good steps, the synchronization, is better than Chinese. The Chinese are not bad. So, in terms of the tools of war, I think it's a combination of the old, the new, and the developing. So, it's not really that awesome altogether. There are some old ones like the DF-31 missiles that have been there for decades. And their ICBMs, yes, and they are still sort of fielded and paraded. That means that they're still stuck with this old program. This is the disadvantage of the 70s, right? Those are the old ones.
There's some new ones, particularly they showcased some kind of air launched ICBMs, the JL-1. And also they have this JL-3, which is a submarine-launched ballistic missile, and combined with the traditional DF-61, DF-31 ICBMs. So you can say, hey listen, China showcased the nuclear triad capabilities from air, from surface, and from underwater. So it can do that. On the other hand, China also has these hypersonic anti-ship missiles because China is far behind the United States in terms of carrier capabilities. So, they're focused on a lot of the anti-ship missile development. So, showcasing the new ones in the YJ series, the YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20. Plus, the YJ 21, which is possibly a hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile, but we're not sure about that. So, what's also new is the drone technology, including the anti-drone weapons, that is the Direct Energy Weapons Laser. In other words, high power microwave systems. But we don't know if they're real or fake. And the reason I'm saying this is because of two things. Number one, normally when the country showcases its weapons, its weapons of awe and power, normally the stocks of the defense contractor companies that built these weapons would go up. China is the exact opposite. On the day of the parade, September 3rd, virtually all of China's defense contractors’ stocks plummeted. Some of them plummeted by double digits. So what does it mean? If you think of it deeper, it is possible that people who actually have inside information [who] know the real strength of this weapons stockpile, some of them [the weapons] may be fake. You never know. So that's one reason why the stocks for these weapon manufactures plummeted on that day. Secondly, if you watch very carefully, particularly those nuclear triad parades, the missiles, the JL-1 and submarine-launched Ju Lang (巨浪), those are gigantic missiles, particularly the DF-61, that are supposed to be very, very heavy.
However, if you watch the tires, they don't seem to be weighted. So, in other words, there could be some dummies there. That doesn't necessarily mean that China does not have that. It's just that on that day on display in Tiananmen Square, it's questionable in the minds of some, right? So, that's why I think this parade is a typical Communist hoopla and extravaganza. I grew up in China in the 60s and 70s. We had many, many of this kind of parade that claimed to have the best, most advanced weapons in the world. They all have this gigantic display of some of the weapons and later on, [they] turn out to be dummies. So again, that doesn't necessarily mean that we should really feel comfortable with that notion that they're not real, but they could be real. So it's just questionable sometimes.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, it's important to keep track of everything that's still been developing regardless of ultimate functionality. And certainly because the advanced capabilities have been such a principal focus of investment and development for the PLA and a priority focus of China's military civil fusion doctrine for years now. Security experts anticipate these advanced capabilities will become the primary force structure and pivotal to PLA operations in the Indo-Pacific. In his remarks, Xi also spoke about the PLA as a heroic military that the people and party can trust and rely on completely, adding that the PLA’s task was to safeguard the country's sovereignty and unification. Of course, getting a moment there to tie in coercive elements against Taiwan. So, Miles, specific to the advanced capabilities that we've been talking about, what is there to know about China's current military development and advanced weapons? And what is the impact of this parade showcase on perhaps other Indo-Pacific nations, if any?
Miles Yu:
Listen, China is a dictatorship [and] like all dictatorships, the Chinese system has these functional and structural flaws. Now you mentioned Xi Jinping saying, [that] we're going to have total trust in our military. That's total nonsense. Xi Jinping is the most paranoid Communist leader since Mao. He has purged more military professional officers than anybody in the history of the PLA. I mean he has purged more than 100 generals and admirals in his 12 years plus in power. And I can guarantee you, probably more than half of the soldiers marching in Tiananmen square, with their chin up, their commanders have already been purged, particularly the rocket force [and] the missile force. So, this is ridiculous. Xi Jinping does not trust his senior military leaders. How does it translate into operational efficiency? Well, it is this: you basically do not have any sort of independent command in the battlefield. That's deadly.
So in the end, Xi Jinping is not only the leading Marxist [and] Leninist diehard in China as a Party Secretary General, he’s also going to be the Supreme commander of all of the Chinese military. In other words, he may be making the same mistake that Adolf Hitler did, and Joseph Stalin did, by purging some of the most capable military leaders and himself taking over [and] interven[ing] so much from above [that] in the end, basically [he created a] foundation for their own demise. Hitler, obviously [fell victim to this], you might say [that] Stalin really survived. Yes, but at what price? World War II, there were 50 million casualties altogether by all countries. The Soviet Union suffered half of that. More than 20 to 25 million of all World War II casualties were Russians. That's because Stalin didn't care about human lives. He basically used this kind of human-wave tactics, the besiege mentality at the expense of a tremendous loss of life. Yes, they won over Nazi Germany, but at what price? So this is something that is very similar to China. Xi Jinping is not particularly brilliant. If you look at world leaders today, Xi Jinping is the only one who probably has the worst education, who doesn't speak a word of any foreign languages, who is dogmatically following the major tenets of Marxism and Leninism. He is a party hack. So that's one reason why when he says he has total trust in the Chinese military, that's just not true. I have strong words for that, but I'm not going to utter them in this public forum.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Turning to our final discussion today, we look at more of the domestic updates and developments surrounding the 80th anniversary celebrations in Beijing days before the military parade. In Chongqing, Miles, your hometown, a Chinese man staged a protest by projecting anti-Communist slogans onto a building that said, “Only without the Communist party can there be a new China.” And another that read “Down with red fascism, overthrow Communist tyranny.” The projections made quite the viral circulation on social media and certainly quite a stir domestically in China. So Miles, help us unpack what went down here and how this triggered a national security panic at the national level.
Miles Yu:
Think about this, Colin. If you really believe China is strong, how can you explain [that] a single 40-year-old man, Qi Hong (齐宏), that’s his name, projected several slogans over the high rises, remotely controlled when he was in England? He had to flee the country and this triggered an entire national manhunt, the entire national security mechanism apparatus was mobilized to put this out. This is not the indication of strength. This is the paranoia and fragility of this regime. So that's why dictatorship will never triumph. And so this man, [who is] very smart, pre-set this projection from the window across the street and basically he put all the slogans over there and then he and his family fled China and got on a plane and flew to England. From England, he used a remote device to trigger and operate this projector. And the anti-Communist slogans were projected to a building across the street through the window for 50 minutes before the police burst into the hotel.
And he left sort of a letter there for these cops to say, hey listen, please do not be the executioner of the brutal regime. Something like that. So it's very, very interesting. This man is a hero, but there's millions of people like him in China, and this news is very, very hilarious because China totally freaked out. The first report about this man's deed went viral. Within hours, 80 million people viewed the post, and many of them were from China. So that's why there is a sort of a CCP extravagant optic. There's also anti-CCP optics like this. So [the anti-CCP optics are] getting more attention.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
There's a great quote from Maya Wang at Human Rights Watch who said in response to this, “The real significance lay in the continued willingness of fearless citizens to boldly and publicly criticize Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, and call for democratic reforms in the face of ever-growing government repression.” Along with the parade and anniversary celebrations, we've been consistently tracking public descent and domestic protests on China Insider to bring light to some of these movements. And, specific to this demonstration, Miles, I'd like to similarly ask here, since Qi Hong did this all remotely from the UK, what has the fallout been like in Chongqing for the Chinese government and especially for his own family members that might still be in the country? And then I guess more broadly, too, are you aware of any other demonstrations or protests against the military parade and [the] CCP?
Miles Yu:
Absolutely. I mean, this show constantly receives feedback and suggestions from Chinese citizens at great risk to their lives. So that's why we cannot really openly discuss who did this, who did that, who said this, [who] said that. But the Chinese government has this sort of a transnational repression. They keep keen eyes on who is doing what overseas. But, it is incumbent upon the international community to push back. The Chinese model of governance, its repressive acts, should never be allowed to operate on free soil, particularly in the United States. It's not that the Chinese citizens are quiet, their resentment is very internal. It's internalized because they have no opportunity [to openly protest]. I think the Chinese Communist Party thinks that they're pretty smart and smug, [but] there is always somebody who can outsmart them like this gentleman from Chongqing.
And he became a hero in China, by the way. The Chinese government constantly says [that] the Chinese Communist Party is loved by the people. No. The Chinese people really hate Communist party. There's no regime that is more loathed and hated by its own citizens than the Chinese Communist Party. So that's why you have to see through the propaganda to see the reality of China. And that's one reason why I think incidents like this are very meaningful. China is like a country full of kindling and a spark could easily ignite a prairie fire, like what we saw in 2022. The white paper movement basically forced Xi Jinping to bow to the power of the people because he worries more than anything else [about] his position as a leader of a dictatorship. So if he does not really see the situation very clearly and resists surrendering to people's power, he may be done [and] overthrown. The worst scenario for him would be like the former dictator of Romania, Ceausescu. So basically, that's the scenario the Chinese Communist Party’s leaders are trying to avoid.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Well, that's our time for today. Thank you to our listeners for joining us again this week. And thank you Miles for breaking down all things military parade today and for your own expert insights connecting these developments to the wider discourse in the international community. We will check back in with you again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright.