In this week’s episode of China Insider, Miles Yu unpacks President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States would allow 600,000 Chinese students to attend American universities and colleges, and how this will affect US attempts to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in American academia. Next, Miles comments on Xi Jinping’s message to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and details the context behind the exchange. Lastly, Miles revisits the latest report from the China Center, China after Communism: Preparing for a Post-CCP China, highlighting the public response and widespread reception.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, Senior Fellow and Director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threats, and their implications to the US and beyond.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
It is Tuesday, September 2nd and we have three topics this week. First, we discuss the recent announcement from the Trump administration welcoming 600,000 Chinese students to study at US universities and colleges and what this means for current efforts by the administration to limit CCP influence on American campuses. Second, we unpack Xi Jinping's recent message to President Zelenskyy to mark Ukraine's Independence Day last Sunday and explore the larger context of this exchange given recent high-level meetings between leaders involved in the conflict. Lastly, we revisit the China Center's latest report, China After Communism, preparing for a post-CCP China including key analysis related to current issues and the wider public response to the report. Miles, great to be with you again this week.
Miles Yu:
Nice to be with you again, Colin.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
So, let's jump right in. Up first this week, President Trump announced last Monday that the US would permit 600,000 Chinese students to attend American universities and colleges for the upcoming school year. This announcement comes as the US added new vetting protocols for student visas and had even taken steps to block foreign enrollment at select US institutions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke back in May about the concern China specifically poses to US security interests and that the State Department would look to revoke visas for students tied to the CCP specifically. Miles, to start us off here, can you explain more about the rationale behind this announcement? Does this indicate new information or a potential shift in approach to Chinese students studying in the US?
Miles Yu:
President Trump is known to be the ultimate deal maker. One part of that is his, sort of deliberately created a sense of unpredictability. So, the overall policy toward China obviously is rock solid, whose foundation was laid during his first administration five, six years ago. So, that policy toward China overall, looking at China's academic exchange with the United States as an exploitative outsourcing of training of the talented people to the United States universities because Chinese universities lack academic freedom. So stifling free thinking, that's one of the reasons why Chinese universities cannot produce enough engineers and high-quality managers of the regime. So, they outsource the training to the United States. That's why over the last two and a half decades, China has trained over 5 million Chinese students, and according to the Chinese Ministry of education's own statistics, over 87% of that 5,000,000+ Chinese students trained in the United States have returned to China.
And so, what you're talking about is that the United States is not benefiting from the long-term benefit of our education. We spend enormous resources training the engineers and empire managers for the Chinese regime, [which] has in turn posed a very serious national security threat to the United States. The very people we have trained on our campuses over the last several decades are now strengthening, working for the Chinese government whose ultimate goal is to destroy America's global leadership and replace the American model of governance with the Chinese Communist Party model of governance worldwide. So, this is why it is a national consensus that this imbalance [of] out of proportion academic exchange with China is very dangerous. Now President Trump said impromptu last week in the White House briefing that he would welcome 600,000 Chinese students to study in the United States because these students would basically help American university campuses. I'm not sure that is actually a firm policy. Number one, [it is] probably part of his negotiation conditions because I can guarantee you the Chinese government actually brought us up during this tariff talks in Geneva, and probably in some other places in Europe, in London with the American team.
So, probably President Trump was sort of a spontaneous[ly] [responding] to that. Now, just put this in practical terms, right now we have about 300,000 Chinese students studying in America and now we'll double the size of Chinese students in this country. And that 300,000 Chinese students study[ing] in America constitute about 25% of all international students study[ing] in the United States. Now there are over 200 countries in the world, all of them send students to this country to be trained. China constitutes about one quarter of that, and that is out of proportion, out of size. And as I mentioned earlier, close to 90% of the students will go back to serve the country of China. So, that's why it's very dangerous in the long run. Now having said that, that does not necessarily mean that this is not manageable. There are many ways to manage this large influx of Chinese students and the set conditions to benefit the United States rather than the Chinese communist regime.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Kind of to build on your figures there, I think one of the more eye-opening aspects of this announcement is the number itself 600,000. To date the number of Chinese students studying at the US peaked like you said, at roughly 370,000 I believe before COVID in the 2019-2020 academic year and has since declined, obviously due to the pandemic, but has really yet to recover since in the same year to year clips that we used to see. So, I'm curious Miles, should we actually expect 600,000 students to attend this upcoming year? And is there any further indication which academic level and fields of study these students might pursue?
Miles Yu:
I mean, first of all, I don't think it is really possible in the near term. Now there's a total of 1.1 million international students in this country. 600,000 Chinese students alone will constitute more than half of that student body. I don't think any sort of universities or colleges in this country can sensibly allow half of its international student body to be Chinese. So, it's nothing to do with the quota, it's just out of proportion, and I don't think that's going to be the case. Number two I mentioned about the conditions, even if that's the case, we have to really carry out several things to manage this ultimately to benefit the United States to minimize the security risk. Let me just lay out some of the conditions I can think of. Number one, we must really carry out the principle of reciprocity. [The] United States opens its university campuses to Chinese students.
We have this many Chinese students studying here, mostly in STEM majors, yet China's closed door to the Americans. It is not that the Chinese government has a policy openly announced that no American can study in China. It's just that they make American study in China almost impossible because of all kinds of stringent restrictions and national security measures and anti-espionage laws and forced compliance with their sense of security. So, few Americans could go to China. While we have close to 300,000 Chinese students studying in this country, less than 1000 American students studying in China. That difference, American students studying in China is less than 1% of [the] Chinese students studied in this country. So that is [an] extreme imbalance. So, we must really urge China to create a reciprocal condition to allow American studies to China, not pass 300,000 Americans there. But at least you have to make the conditions open and welcoming for Americans to study there.
Right now, it's totally not reciprocal. This is not acceptable. Number two, I think out of a national security concern, we definitely should prohibit Chinese students to get visas to study in the area of STEMs that are vital to national security like quantum computing, like cyber artificial intelligence. So, we shouldn't allow any foreign students, particularly Chinese students to study there because they have this track record of conducting business other than studying academic exchange. I will say, as I mentioned about earlier, about the high return rate of Chinese students studying this country going back to China, 87%, nearly 90%. One of the reasons for that is the Chinese government has this draconian long arm of control of Chinese students studying in this country through Chinese consulate control methods on over 200 American campuses right now. There is something called the Chinese Student Scholars Association, the CSSAs, those were controlled by the Chinese consulates.
They create this environment of informants, they install their party cells in some of the campuses, which is absolutely in violation of American sovereignty, foreign diplomats were not allowed to conduct business in its country through coercion or intimidation. Now I know there are some campuses in America whose official address, the student body, the Chinese students and scholars’ associations CSSA, their address is the address of the Chinese consulates, particularly Chinese consulates in Los Angeles, New York and Chicago. So, I know this very well because when I was a graduate student at the University of California Berkeley, that was the case. The CSS were controlled by the Chinese consulate. So, this is basically one of the ways to coerce the Chinese studying there to tow the party line and eventually they have to go back, because they control the access to passport and exit visa, that kind of thing.
I would also venture to suggest, for any Chinese student to study in the United States, each of them when they're applying for colleges and also American government issued visas, they must make the pledge that they would have no connection with the Chinese government in any form or shape. So, to make sure they are a hundred percent students, just like any other students coming to the United States to pursue their high education degree and for their own American dream, that is, those are conditions I think we have to be very, very clear, and made very explicit to the Chinese government. And then lastly, I would also say, I would like to add one thing, that we absolutely have to prevent the Chinese government from talent recruiting: of American intellectuals, professors, researchers from the labs. China has done all kinds of talent pipelines to get America’s top scientists to work in China.
And [America] is not really allowed to do the same. That's not allowed. And some of the most famous cases of Korea, an infamous case was a recruitment of the Chairman of the chemistry department at Harvard University by the Chinese government. So, things like that we can put some kind of get serious about this, if China wants to send many students over here make sure it has to be very, the students would have a free will and the government should have no business in Chinese students studying in the United States, let alone to force them to go back.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Let's flip the script somewhat here and focus on China's point of view. While the Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to this announcement, they did issue travel advisories for Chinese students returning to the US to avoid select airports and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning (毛宁) said “the US's move severely violate the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese nationals impede the flow of people between the two countries and dampen China-US people to people exchanges.” So, Miles, I'm curious to get a little bit more of the perspective of what is the current policy from China on this issue in particular.
Miles Yu:
The Chinese government spokesperson Mao Ning (毛宁), you know she's the master of deceit. For her to say the Chinese government [is] promoting freedom of movement and not interfering with individual freedom, it's just a joke. And the United States welcomes more Chinese students to this country than any other national[ity] from any country in the world, how can you say US government is actually conspiring to restrict the Chinese students coming to the United States to study. That’s just pure nonsense.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
And I guess to round out this topic briefly, you provided such a comprehensive set of policy recommendations and actions that I think cover most every national security concern that has been stated from various levels of the government and certainly think tank circles. But, given the recent announcement and especially as they concern those stated US national security interests, is this announcement and potential plan ultimately a benefit to US interests in your mind?
Miles Yu:
Ultimately it is not. Based upon the status quo, based upon the track records in the past, but it is what it is. And I think what I'm saying is, if the 600,000 Chinese students will be allowed into the United States, we can create conditions to minimize the security risk[s]. And also, I must say law enforcement agencies of this country should act very decisively. The moment they discover amongst the Chinese students who act as agents of Chinese government, they should be deported or even prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Because most of the Chinese student in this country, Colin, here's the reality, if any Chinese student in this country go on the microphone, go to any public forum to openly praise American freedom, to openly praise the institution of the American democracy, that person will be shunned upon on any American campuses by the CSSAs, and most likely he or she will be in trouble when he or she goes back to China. We have so many cases like this right now because the Chinese government has created an atmosphere of fear and intimidation on the American campuses. This is free soil, this is not really, should not be allowed. And I think if this 600,000 students plan would go ahead, I hope this actually is another opportunity for this country to be more vigilant to have generally more discussion about the danger of this out of proportion, one-sided academic exchange with the People's Republic of China.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, it's a very good caution to warn against, and certainly something we'll track over the next couple months and see if this actually does move the dial at all in the regard of ongoing trade talks and negotiations. Because it does seem like this is at least…
Miles Yu:
Well before we go on, let me just add one more thing. [The] Hudson Institute is situated in Washington DC. There are several universities in the capital of the United States, students from China sympathetic to democracy and advocating for human rights, they cannot openly operate any sort of have any events with Hudson Institute without risking being, sort of, harassed by the Chinese students, operated by the Chinese government on American soil, let alone in the capital of the United States. We have been contacted by several student groups in the Washington DC area. They show extreme caution and fear. That's because the Chinese communist agents on American campuses are so rampant, so brazen, and it's absolutely mind boggling that we do not do more to stem those kinds of risks.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Absolutely. Yeah. And so certainly we'll continue to track with this. But turning to our next topic, this week Xi Jinping sent a "congratulations” message to President Zelinsky on the anniversary of Ukraine's Independence Day last Sunday. This is reportedly the first public, public message I should say sent by Xi to any Ukrainian officials since the Russian invasion began in 2022. The message was posted to social media outlets and mentioned among other things, Xi's attempts to coalesce in congress with Ukraine saying, “I stand ready to work with you to guide our bilateral relations towards steady and long-term development and bring greater benefits to the peoples of both countries.” But given what we've covered previously, even last week on China Insider Miles, why did Xi Jinping send this message, and what is the greater context behind this?
Miles Yu:
Xi Jinping has stood by Russia from the beginning of the war. He has never condemned Vladimir Putin for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. As a matter of fact, on several occasions, if you look at the Chinese domestic opinion, the Chinese propaganda machine overwhelmingly blames Ukraine as a culprit of this war and taking sides with Vladimir Putin, one hundred percent. So, that's the problem. Anybody inside China who show any sympathy toward Ukraine, you are going to be in trouble. So, this is a country that Zelenskyy still has some kind of illusion. And I think that the only reason why Xi Jinping is doing this kind of show, congratulating Ukraine's independence is because Zelenskyy made a mild statement last week that said, “China cannot be an honest security guarantor of Ukraine after the war is over.” And Xi Jinping must be freaking out on this, because China wants to be the ultimate exploiter of the peace dividend, we talked about that last week.
Now speaking of last week, I actually made a mistake by stating that China was a signer to the 1994 Budapest memorandum that provided security assurance to Ukraine. I was wrong, and China was not an official signer. Official signers were Ukraine, Russia, US and UK. However, China and France issued a separate security assurance to Ukraine. So, in a way, they are part of this Ukraine security assurance package of 1994. So, now having said that, let me just point out another thing. China has always tried to get Ukraine on its side. I mentioned last week that Ukraine actually is instrumental in China's military modernization by transporting a lot of Russian designed weapons to China. So, in the decades up to the war of Ukraine three years ago, China has signed no fewer than three strategic partnership agreements with Ukraine, in 2018, and actually 2013 and there was one in between.
The last one signed was in December 2013 when President Viktor Yanukovych went to China and signed the deal with Xi Jinping. This is the one. But then, when the war started in Ukraine, Russia invaded Ukraine, China abandoned all the pledges and took a side on the Russian side and President Zelenskyy should have learned the lesson, yet he really has not. He's had this illusion. And President Xi Jinping actually after Zelensky made that statement last week, he was in a panic mood. This is why there is kind of a showing of goodwill to Zelenskyy. He even invited Zelenskyy to visit Beijing. I think Zelenskyy has accepted the invitation. It's going to be in Beijing in a few days, but this is all an illusion. China cannot be trusted. And it's tested by its past behavior. So, I think what China really wants to do is wants to reap the peace dividends to become a major player in post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. That's something that the United States will not allow to happen, as I mentioned last week.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
I know I said this was the first public message since the Russian invasion, but I think we all remember the private phone call held between Zelenskyy and Xi back in April 2023. Just to add to your historic dialogue between China and Ukraine, that phone call gave us key sound bites of Xi calling Putin his dear friend, and the 12-point peace plan insisting China stood on the right side of history. So, the dialogue has been there, but in remarkably different circumstances now than in 2023. And I think Zelenskyy responded to Xi's message with appreciation, and at least reaffirmed the broader messages of mutual respect, peace, stability, and so on. But it's an interesting comparison to the statements from last week's summit like you mentioned. So, Miles, does this shift the equation in current talks between the US, China, Russia and the Ukraine and potentially other key global actors that are involved?
Miles Yu:
Well, you see, you mentioned this prior phone call between Xi and Zelenskyy and China's 12 points settlement plan for the ending Ukraine war. That was the time when Russia was militarily in retreat. So, China came out to rescue Russia, and by providing this so-called peace plan, the peace plan was a one-sided attempt to preserve Russia's strength. And after that, it was China that beefed up Russia's military fighting capability by providing enormous material financial and political support for Russia and technological support to Russia. So that's one reason why the war keeps going on. So, China is the ultimate corporate for prolonged war in Ukraine. Without support, the war would've ended a long time ago. So that's why I think these 12 points all sound very grandiose, but there's no substance. Xi Jinping has 12 points; the almighty God has only 10. So, this is just not really that serious. But I think ever since then, Russia has been on the offensive. So, China has abandoned talking about the 12 points and it's all about sort of pushing the west to accept Vladimir Putin's position of territorial annexation. So, this is China, and I don't think China can possibly be an auditor broker of peace.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
I certainly say that's a fair assessment, and certainly as we turn to our final topic today, to round out the conversation, we follow up on the China Center's report, China After Communism Preparing for a Post-CCP China, a little over a month out from the initial release. To recap for our listeners, the report convened policy experts and scholars on several topics of consequence in the event of a potential collapse of centralized authority in China and the Chinese Communist Party. While the CCP seeks to strengthen its regime and pursues global dominance, it certainly faces significant and complex structural challenges that warrant conversations of preparedness, especially for key security concerns regarding regional and global stability. We talked about some of this content previously on China Insider, but Miles, can you fill us in with some of the updates since and public response to the report now a month later.
Miles Yu:
Oh, the response has been overwhelming. I mean, preponderantly from the Chinese speaking world, and of course in the English-speaking world also response has always been very positive. The think tank colleagues congratulated us, and they began to think about something in the same vein, right? Because the Chinese regime is draconian, it looks tough, but also there's a lot of fault lines within that regime. So, the sudden collapse of the Chinese Communist party’s regime is not entirely impossible. So, it's important for us to actually get ready to plan post-collapse scenarios. Now, in the Chinese speaking world, a lot of friends were very excited about this, and they have contacted us to provide all kinds of opinions, and even suggestions. There is some kind of a misunderstanding here. We're not sort of actively seeking to facilitate the collapse of the regime, even though as much as we want to.
But this is not the focus of this report. This report is not about how the regime will collapse, how to make the regime collapse. This report simply is about if the regime collapsed for whatever reason suddenly, and what kind of steps should be taken. Number one, to stabilize the situation in China. Number two, to help China transform to a normal country. So, that's basically the focus of that. And I think after that, as you know, I made a trip to Taiwan and spoke to various think tanks and met several groups everywhere I went, even though a lot of topics that faced in Taiwan and the US, but this was the number one topic. Everybody wants to talk about this. So, I appeared on TV at least three times, I think. And so, there's hundreds of thousands of viewers of those programs just focusing on this report. So, the response from the public has been overwhelming and incidentally on the internet, social media. Even though the Chinese government has banned this kind of report, it has been going around in China, in certain circles and has gone viral, I must say.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
I love to hear about the response from groups around the world and knowing the report's key findings and analysis is reaching such a wide audience here. I should mention for our listeners, you can find their support online at Hudson.org under the China Center's featured research section and certainly look forward to any potential future projects that might be coming down the line. But that's unfortunately all the time we have for this week. Thank you to our listeners for joining us. And thank you Miles for your expert analysis and insight on this week's issues. We'll check back in with you again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, thank you Colin, and I'll see you next week.