SVG
Commentary
Hudson Institute

The Great Leap South | October 2025

zineb_riboua
zineb_riboua
Research Fellow, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East
The Great Leap South October 2025
Caption
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Tanzanian Minister of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation Mahmoud Thabit Kombo in Hunan, China on June 10, 2025. (Getty Images)

Executive Summary

China and Saudi Arabia tighten ties: China and Saudi Arabia finalized 42 investment agreements worth over $1.74 billion across sectors such as smart vehicles, energy, medical devices, and minerals.

A new “strategic project” in Morocco: Chinese battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech announced it will invest approximately $6.8 billion in Africa’s first major electric vehicle factory.

Exporting the Great Firewall: A leak revealed that the company behind China’s Great Firewall has worked with the governments of Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

China commits to upgrade Tanzania–Zambia railway: This railway, which links Zambia’s Copperbelt to Dar es Salaam, is crucial for exporting copper and cobalt to global markets.

1. China and Saudi Arabia Tighten Economic Ties

During a visit to Beijing, Saudi Arabian Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef inked multiple memorandums of understanding with Chinese business leaders, including BOE Technology Group, Kyland Technology, and Tsinghua Unigroup. The agreements aim to promote Saudi Arabia’s advanced manufacturing industry and strengthen Riyadh’s industrial collaboration with its largest trading partner.

In total, China and Saudi Arabia finalized 42 investment agreements worth over $1.74 billion across sectors such as smart vehicles, energy, medical devices, and minerals. Afterwards, Alkhorayef emphasized that these deals affirmed the strong partnership between the two “friendly” countries.

Why it matters

Beijing is positioning itself to be the engine of the kingdom’s industrial future. By embedding Chinese standards, hardware, and supply chains in Saudi manufacturing, Beijing is locking in long-term influence over sectors that underpin defense production, energy, and critical minerals.

For the United States, the stakes are high:

  1. China is transforming its commercial footprint in Saudi Arabia into strategic depth, using industrial partnerships to shape future standards and dependencies that will outlast short-term investments.
  2. Chinese technologies could compromise Saudi Arabia’s information and communications infrastructure, potentially complicating American military basing and intelligence sharing agreements with Riyadh.

Beijing is ramping up its economic cooperation efforts to capture Riyadh’s political loyalty. Washington could lose one of its most important Gulf partners to China’s emerging industrial and technological sphere. If the US fails to counter this momentum with competing investment and technology diplomacy, China’s industrial architecture will become the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s tech economy.

2. Deepening China-Morocco Cooperation

In Beijing, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a strategic dialogue mechanism. Bourita reaffirmed Morocco’s commitment to the one China principle and expressed willingness to deepen cooperation with China under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Meanwhile, Chinese battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech announced it will invest approximately $6.8 billion in a new “strategic project” in Morocco: Africa’s first major electric vehicle factory. Morocco controls nearly 70 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, making it a key supplier for the global lithium battery supply chain. Additionally, according to the company’s press release, Morocco offers roughly 36 percent lower battery production costs than any other country.

Why it matters

With these agreements, China is turning Morocco into a strategic base for its clean energy supply chain. The Gotion facility links Chinese capital and technology to Morocco’s phosphate reserves, giving Beijing even greater leverage over global battery production.

For the US, this presents a threefold challenge:

  1. China is embedding its industrial ecosystem in a longtime Western partner.
  2. Beijing is positioning Morocco as a bridge between African resources and European markets.
  3. Chinese control over the battery value chain could erode US influence over both the energy transition and regional trade.

To anchor Rabat within Western supply networks before Beijing’s foothold becomes irreversible, Washington should:

  1. Integrate Morocco into allied mineral and battery initiatives.
  2. Expand US investment in the country’s green-tech sector through the Development Finance Corporation.
  3. Launch a joint US-Morocco critical minerals partnership linking phosphate and battery production to the Minerals Security Partnership.

3. China Exports Its Great Firewall

A recent leak revealed that Geedge Networks, the company behind China’s Great Firewall, has been selling similar censorship systems to governments worldwide. The documents show Geedge has provided technology capable of monitoring, filtering, and controlling internet traffic to Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Myanmar. The leak does not prove that Geedge is responsible for internet censorship in any of the four countries. But company logs show the internet system in Ethiopia switched from passive monitoring to active interference 18 times, including just days before the country’s February 2023 internet shutdown.

Why it matters

Beijing is weaponizing censorship technology exports to hardwire political loyalty into the digital infrastructure of emerging states, giving Beijing significant long-term leverage.

More importantly, by embedding its systems in African and Asian communications, Beijing is building its own siloed segment of the internet, which could fragment the global userbase and weaken Western intelligence agencies’ visibility over international crime.

Washington should respond by classifying Chinese censorship exports as dual-use strategic technologies and subject them to sanctions. This measure would deter governments from adopting Beijing’s systems by attaching clear strategic and economic consequences.

4. China Upgrades Tanzania–Zambia Railway

Chinese state-owned construction giant China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) signed a $1.4 billion deal with Zambia and Tanzania to upgrade the Tanzania–Zambia railway. The line, which links Zambia’s Copperbelt to Dar es Salaam, is crucial for exporting copper and cobalt to global markets. The agreement coincides with growing US engagement in the competing Lobito Corridor in Angola.

Why it matters

China’s attempt to modernize the Tanzania–Zambia railway marks a strategic push to control southern Africa’s mineral export routes and counter US efforts to develop the competing Lobito Corridor. By upgrading the line, Beijing is reinforcing its dominance over the logistics of critical minerals while pulling regional governments closer into its economic orbit.

Washington should respond by accelerating financing for the Lobito Corridor and coordinating allied investments to make the western route the main export channel. The United States should also track and publicize China’s performance on the Tanzania–Zambia project to expose potential delays or insufficiencies, turning Beijing’s weak follow-through into a strategic narrative advantage and reinforcing the case for transparent, robust infrastructure partnerships.

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