On NatSec Matters, Michael Doran discusses the outlook for United States–Israeli attacks on Iran, explaining how internal power dynamics within the Iranian regime shape prospects for negotiations to de-escalate or end the conflict. He also examines the diverging interests of Israeli and American leaders, the influence of Iran’s ethnic groups on potential outcomes, and why he believes a citizen-led uprising to topple the government is unlikely.
Caption
Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and Indonesia's Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka during the G20 Leaders' Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on November 22, 2025. (Getty Images)