On NatSec Matters, Michael Doran discusses the outlook for United States–Israeli attacks on Iran, explaining how internal power dynamics within the Iranian regime shape prospects for negotiations to de-escalate or end the conflict. He also examines the diverging interests of Israeli and American leaders, the influence of Iran’s ethnic groups on potential outcomes, and why he believes a citizen-led uprising to topple the government is unlikely.
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A man walks near the headquarters of the Russian Central Bank in Moscow on February 13, 2026. (Getty Images)