Executive Summary
- Battlefield assessment: Russia intensified its efforts in the battle for Pokrovsk, which accounts for almost 30 percent of the war’s current combat activity.
- Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign: Ukraine continued to conduct long-range strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting a refinery in Leningrad Oblast.
- The future of Western aid: The Trump administration approved its first weapons aid package for Ukraine under a new financial arrangement with NATO allies.
1. Battlefield Assessment
Last week fighting intensified further across the Ukrainian battlespace, particularly over the persistent flashpoint of Pokrovsk. The town and its adjacent areas account for approximately 30 percent of the war’s ongoing combat activity. Other cities, including Lyman, Toretsk, and Poltavka, witnessed an aggressive Russian push. Fighting also raged in the directions of Orikhiv, Kharkiv, and Kupiansk.
Though Ukrainian units pushed to recapture small towns and villages near Pokrovsk, the strategic picture still favors Russia. The Russian military has been slowly but steadily seizing Ukrainian territory since the outset of its full-scale invasion campaign. In August Russia captured some 200 square miles of Ukrainian land.
Last week’s tactical exchanges allowed both Russian and Ukrainian units to show off novel capabilities, including motorcycle assaults and drone-on-drone warfare. Notably, a Ukrainian drone warfare unit engaged a high-end Russian drone using a smaller, cheaper unmanned system.
Ukraine continued to target Russia’s economically vital oil infrastructure. During the night of September 14, Ukrainian forces attacked the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast. The facility is one of the largest refineries in the Russian Federation, capable of producing more than 17 million tons of oil per year. Ukrainian sources reported that, while Russian air defenses intercepted a few drones near the refinery, the strike caused a massive fire.
Initial indicators suggest that Ukraine’s attacks have significantly stressed Russia’s vital energy sector. This report will continue to monitor Russian oil production and revenues in the coming months.
2. US-NATO Program Approves First Weapons Package
The Trump administration approved the first weapons aid package for Ukraine under a new financial arrangement mechanism known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). The package includes weaponry and munitions from the United States’ arsenal, paid for by fellow North Atlantic Treaty Organization members.
Established in August 2025, the PURL framework allows allied nations to support US arms manufacturers while helping Ukraine fight the Russian invasion. Since PURL’s establishment, European NATO members have pledged approximately $2 billion to the program.
The arrangement could supply Kyiv with weapons valued at up to $10 billion. Under the terms of the program, NATO will coordinate arms deliveries to Kyiv, including through the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) framework. The alliance’s supreme allied commander, in close collaboration with Ukraine and the US, will then verify that the weapons from US stockpiles meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield requirements.
With Russia probing NATO members with drone attacks, Europe will likely become even more motivated to augment Ukraine’s military.