The belief that China will soon become the dominant power in Asia is based on assumptions that its continued and rapid economic rise, and its emergence as a regional peer of America’s in military terms is all but assured. Such a belief underpins arguments that a fundamental strategic reorganisation of Asia is inevitable, and that it will be necessary and perhaps even desirable to concede to China significant ‘strategic space’. Dependent largely on linear extrapolations about the future, such arguments ignore the implications of China’s economic, social and national fragilities, its lack of major friends or allies in the region as well as the considerable military deficiencies and challenges faced by the People’s Liberation Army. With the Defence White Paper due for release in 2015, the government should bear in mind that planning for an era of Chinese dominance in the region—or even its emergence as an American strategic peer in Asia—would be premature if not improbable. Australia should not design its defence force for war with China, but it should be able to counter Chinese coercion and contribute to Allied military operations if necessary.
Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia
Policy Centers
- Center for Defense Concepts and Technology
- Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East
- China Center
- Japan Chair
- Center for the Economics of the Internet
- Center for Religious Freedom
- Coronavirus Insights and Analysis
- Current Trends in Islamist Ideology
- Center for Substance Abuse Policy Research
- Forum for Intellectual Property
- Hamilton Commission on Securing America’s National Security Innovation Base
- Hudson Institute Political Studies
- Kleptocracy Initiative
- Quantum Alliance Initiative
- South Asia Program
- First Step Act Independent Review Committee