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Commentary
The Wall Street Journal

Trump’s Political Calculus on Iran

His MAGA coalition remains loyal, but if things go badly, he could end up isolated.

walter_russell_mead
walter_russell_mead
Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance sit in the Situation Room at the White House on June 21, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Daniel Torok via Getty Images)
Caption
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance sit in the Situation Room at the White House on June 21, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Daniel Torok via Getty Images)

Donald Trump has astonished the world again. Saturday’s attack on three Iranian nuclear sites was the boldest use of American power since George W. Bush launched his shock-and-awe campaign against Saddam Hussein in 2003.

The effectiveness and consequences of the daring raid remains unclear. We don’t yet know how badly Iran’s facilities were hit, or how much fissile material and equipment had been evacuated. Nor do we yet know what comes next. Does Iran plan further retaliation after Monday’s limited strike against an American base in Qatar? How long will Israel continue to follow up the attack, and how effective will more Israeli attacks on regime facilities be? Will this be the last direct American attack on Iran? Will Mr. Trump be dragged into a “forever war” of his own?

Read the full article in The Wall Street Journal.