Brazil Decides: The 2026 Election and the Future of US-Brazil Relations

Brazil goes to the polls on October 4, 2026, in a first-round presidential vote that pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term at age 80, against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries the banner of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. 

Lula has campaigned as the defender of Brazilian sovereignty against United States tariffs, while Flávio has promised closer alignment with Washington on trade and security. With runoff polling at a statistical tie, a fragmented conservative field, and US tariffs and terrorist designations of Brazilian criminal groups now a focus of the campaign, the result will set the terms of Washington’s relationship with Latin America’s largest economy.

Join Hudson Institute for a panel that will examine the dynamics shaping the race, how each leading candidate would govern, and what a Lula or Bolsonaro victory would mean for US-Brazil relations.